2024: Exceeding the 1.5-Degree Warming Threshold

2024: Exceeding the 1.5-Degree Warming Threshold

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2024: Exceeding the 1.5-Degree Warming Threshold

Global temperature is predicted to surpass the 1.5-degree warming threshold in 2024, prompting concerns and skepticism about the effectiveness of climate conferences in achieving emission reduction goals.

German
Germany
Climate ChangeEnergy SecurityGlobal WarmingTemperature IncreaseClimate ConferencesScientific Predictions
Copernicus Climate Change ServiceUnAlfred-Wegener-Institut (Awi)Geomar Helmholtz-Zentrum Für Ozeanforschung KielPotsdam-Institut Für Klimafolgenforschung (Pik)
Samantha BurgessAntónio GuterresMojib LatifSteve SmithHelge GößlingAnders Levermann
What is the prediction regarding the global temperature increase for 2024?
The global community has committed to limiting human-caused climate change to 1.5 degrees. However, the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service predicts that 2024 will likely be the first year where the average temperature exceeds 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
What is the significance of the 1.5-degree target and how is it currently assessed?
While the 1.5-degree target is symbolic, there isn't a clear definition for it, and some scientists argue that focusing on net-zero emissions is more crucial. The current data does not yet mean the target has been 'missed' as longer-term averages are considered.
What are the implications of the increasing CO2 levels and the inertia of the climate system?
The increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere are leading to faster warming, and land and oceans can absorb less CO2 than before. Even if emissions stopped immediately, there would still be a temperature increase due to the climate system's inertia.
How are high ocean temperatures related to the current temperature records and what data supports this?
High ocean temperatures are closely linked to record-high air temperatures, as oceans cover 71% of the Earth's surface and influence atmospheric temperatures. Copernicus data shows a significant temperature increase since 2010, with 15 of the last 16 months exceeding 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial average.
What is the general opinion of climate scientists regarding the effectiveness of COP climate conferences?
Several climate scientists express skepticism about the effectiveness of COP climate conferences in achieving significant breakthroughs in emission reduction. They argue that the conferences haven't been successful in the past and that even a successful outcome may be misleading.