sueddeutsche.de
2024 Global Temperature Exceeds 1.5 Degrees Celsius, but Official Breach of Paris Agreement Threshold Delayed
2024 marks the first year where the global average temperature exceeded the pre-industrial level by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, based on initial data from the EU climate service Copernicus; however, the official declaration of breaching the Paris Agreement's 1.5-degree limit, as determined by a 20-year average temperature, is delayed until approximately 2030.
- How does the current methodology for determining the 1.5-degree Celsius warming threshold impact the urgency of climate action?
- While 2024's temperature exceeded the 1.5-degree threshold, the official determination uses a 20-year average. The IPCC projects reaching this average around 2030, aligning with the proposed 10-year assessment, which would still necessitate a five-year wait for confirmation.
- What is the significance of 2024 exceeding the 1.5-degree Celsius warming threshold above pre-industrial levels, given the Paris Agreement's goal?
- The global average temperature in 2024 surpassed the pre-industrial level by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius for the first time on record, according to Copernicus. However, the Paris Agreement's 1.5-degree limit is defined by a 20-year average, meaning a definitive breach won't be declared until around 2030.
- What are the potential consequences of delaying the formal declaration of exceeding the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold, considering the inertia of the climate system and rising greenhouse gas emissions?
- The current methodology for determining the 1.5-degree threshold introduces a significant delay in recognizing the breach, hindering prompt responses. The ongoing increase in greenhouse gas emissions, currently up 0.8% in 2024, suggests that exceeding even the 2-degree limit is highly probable.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The article frames the discussion around the debate over the official declaration of exceeding the 1.5-degree warming limit. This prioritizes the procedural aspect over the urgency of climate action and the already-evident severe impacts of warming. The headline and introduction could benefit from a more direct and alarmist framing to highlight the severity of the situation.
Language Bias
The language used is mostly neutral and objective. However, phrases like "beautiful backdoor" (schönes Hintertürchen) in relation to the political delaying tactics on climate action could be considered slightly loaded. A more neutral alternative could be 'convenient loophole' or 'tactical delay'.
Bias by Omission
The article focuses heavily on the debate surrounding the 1.5-degree warming threshold, potentially omitting discussion of other crucial climate change impacts beyond temperature increase, such as sea level rise or biodiversity loss. While acknowledging the limitations of space, a brief mention of these wider effects would provide a more holistic picture.
False Dichotomy
The article presents a false dichotomy by framing the discussion primarily around whether the 1.5-degree threshold has been 'officially' crossed. This ignores the nuanced reality that even if not officially declared, the impacts of exceeding this level are already being felt, and every fraction of a degree of warming worsens risks.
Sustainable Development Goals
The article highlights that 2024 is on track to be the warmest year on record, exceeding the 1.5-degree Celsius warming limit set in the Paris Agreement. This directly impacts climate action goals by demonstrating the insufficient progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating climate change. The article further emphasizes that even if emissions were stopped immediately, the warming trend would continue for decades due to the inertia of the climate system. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as the devastating floods in Central Europe, are cited as direct consequences of climate change, further underscoring the negative impact.