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2024: Hottest Year on Record, Surpassing 1.5°C Warming Limit
November 2024 was the second warmest November on record, exceeding pre-industrial levels by 1.62°C, leading the Copernicus Climate Change Service to declare 2024 the hottest year on record, surpassing the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement.
- What factors contributed to the record-breaking temperatures in 2024 beyond the El Niño effect?
- This record surpasses the most ambitious target of the 2015 Paris Agreement, aiming to limit warming well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. However, the agreement refers to long-term trends; the 1.5°C average must be observed for at least 20 years to consider the limit breached. Current policies lead to a catastrophic 3.1°C warming by the end of the century, according to the UN.
- What is the significance of 2024 exceeding the pre-industrial temperature level by more than 1.5°C?
- The Copernicus Climate Change Service announced on December 9th, 2024, that 2024 will be the hottest year on record, exceeding the pre-industrial level by more than 1.5°C. November 2024 was 1.62°C warmer than a typical November before industrialization, following devastating typhoons in Asia and ongoing droughts in southern Africa and the Amazon.
- What are the implications of the slow temperature decrease after El Niño and the insufficient progress in global climate action?
- The slow cooling after the El Niño peak in 2023 and the continued high temperatures in 2024 require further analysis. If temperatures do not decrease significantly in 2025, it will raise serious concerns about exceeding projected warming levels. The insufficient funding and lack of commitment to phasing out fossil fuels at COP29 highlight the challenges in meeting climate goals.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The framing emphasizes the severity of the situation by highlighting the record-breaking temperatures and the catastrophic consequences of exceeding the 1.5°C threshold. The use of phrases like "catastrophic" and "record" contributes to a sense of urgency and alarm. While the information presented is factually accurate, the emphasis is clearly on the negative aspects of the situation.
Language Bias
The article uses strong language to convey the seriousness of the situation, such as "dévastateurs" (devastating) and "catastrophique" (catastrophic). While this effectively conveys the urgency of the climate crisis, it could be considered emotionally charged language. More neutral alternatives might include "significant" or "substantial" instead of "catastrophic", and "severe" instead of "devastating."
Bias by Omission
The article focuses on the record-breaking temperatures and the implications of exceeding the 1.5°C threshold, but it omits discussion of potential natural climate variability beyond El Niño that might contribute to the temperature increase. Additionally, while mentioning the COP29 agreement and funding, it lacks detail on specific commitments and the level of ambition relative to what's scientifically necessary. The article also doesn't delve into the specifics of different countries' climate policies or their effectiveness in reducing emissions.
False Dichotomy
The article presents a somewhat simplified dichotomy between the ambitious 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement and the projected 3.1°C warming based on current policies. It doesn't fully explore the range of possibilities between these two extremes or the potential for achieving more moderate warming scenarios with more ambitious action.
Sustainable Development Goals
The article highlights that 2024 is on track to be the hottest year on record, exceeding the 1.5°C pre-industrial level. This surpasses the ambitious limit of the Paris Agreement and indicates a severe lack of progress in climate action. The continued rise in temperatures, despite commitments, points to insufficient efforts in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to climate change impacts. The slow decline in temperatures following El Niño and the insufficient financial aid for developing nations' climate transitions further exacerbate the negative impact.