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2024: Record-breaking Warmth and the Urgency of Net-Zero Emissions
2024 is projected to surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, raising concerns about climate change, while the focus should shift to achieving net-zero emissions.
German
Germany
Climate ChangeEnergy SecurityEnvironmentClimateEmissionsTemperatureWarming
CopernicusUnUniversity Of OxfordAlfred-Wegener-InstitutPotsdam-Institut Für Klimafolgenforschung
Samantha BurgessMojib LatifAntónio GuterresSteve SmithHelge GößlingAnders Levermann
- What is the significance of 2024 in terms of global temperature?
- According to Copernicus, 2024 will likely be the warmest year on record, exceeding the pre-industrial average by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. This doesn't automatically mean the Paris Agreement's 1.5-degree target is missed, as that target considers long-term averages.
- What is the definition of the 1.5-degree warming threshold and its implications?
- The 1.5-degree warming threshold has high symbolic value, but lacks a clear, universally accepted definition. Experts suggest that it's not definitively breached until the average temperature remains above that level for two decades; however, continued greenhouse gas emissions mean this is highly likely to occur.
- What is the primary goal that should take precedence over the 1.5-degree target, and why?
- The key focus should shift from the 1.5-degree threshold to achieving net-zero emissions. Without stopping emissions, temperatures will continue to rise, leading to more severe climate impacts like extreme weather events and increased mortality.
- What are the long-term implications of greenhouse gas emissions, even with immediate cessation?
- Even if all CO2 emissions stopped immediately, the Earth's climate system's inertia would still cause an additional 0.5-degree increase over the coming decades. The rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere, coupled with the degradation of natural carbon sinks like forests, further exacerbate the warming trend.
- What is the relationship between ocean and air temperatures, and what evidence supports the continued warming trend?
- Ocean temperatures are closely linked to atmospheric temperatures; high ocean temperatures contribute to increased air temperatures globally. The continued warming trend, evident in the past 16 months, shows a clear increase since 2010 and persistently above 1 degree since 2015.