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2024 US Election: Key Takeaways and Analysis
Analysis of the 2024 US election, focusing on voter turnout, the significance of Trump's win, prediction market accuracy, and polling errors.
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Us PoliticsPollingElection AnalysisPrediction MarketsStatistical Analysis
The New York TimesEl PaísPolymarketThe Wall Street JournalThe Economist
Donald TrumpKamala HarrisJoe BidenFredi9999Nate SilverAnn Selzer
- Why were many people surprised by the election result despite available predictions?
- Many were surprised by Trump's win, despite numerous polls and prediction markets indicating a close race and high likelihood of either a 'red wave' or 'blue wave'. These predictions were widely reported in various news outlets.
- Who is Fredi9999, and what impact did their actions have on the election and their own financial status?
- Fredi9999, an anonymous user, made significant bets on Trump's victory on the Polymarket platform, ultimately profiting handsomely due to their large-scale wagers and insufficient counter-liquidity.
- How significant was Trump's victory in terms of overall vote shift, and why is there talk of a 'red wave'?
- Trump's victory wasn't a landslide; the shift in national vote share was relatively small (around 3%). While the state-level map changed significantly, the overall voter preference remained fairly similar to previous elections.
- What were the initial reports regarding the popular vote in the US election, and why were they inaccurate?
- Initial reports suggested a four-point popular vote win for Trump, but this is inaccurate pending final counts. Millions of uncounted votes remain, potentially altering the final margin.
- How accurate were prediction markets like Polymarket compared to other prediction models, and should their success be overstated?
- While Polymarket accurately predicted Trump's win with a 60% probability, compared to other prediction models showing around 50%, the difference is not statistically significant. The success of Polymarket shouldn't be overstated; it relies heavily on underlying polling data.