theguardian.com
2024 US Election: Pollsters' Failure
US pollsters faced criticism for their inaccurate predictions in the 2024 presidential election, with online prediction markets proving more accurate.
English
United Kingdom
Us PoliticsElectionMediaPollingPredictionAccuracy
Des Moines RegisterFivethirtyeightBetfairKalshiPolymarket
Donald TrumpKamala HarrisJ Ann SelzerNate SilverRick Perlstein
- What did many pre-election polls show about the race between Trump and Harris?
- Many polls showed a close race between Trump and Harris, with some even predicting a narrow win for Harris, contradicting the actual outcome.
- What was the accuracy of the Des Moines Register poll regarding the Iowa results?
- A Des Moines Register poll, showing Harris with a lead in Iowa, proved inaccurate; Trump won Iowa by a significant margin.
- How did US pollsters perform in predicting the 2024 presidential election outcome?
- US pollsters significantly underestimated Donald Trump's support in the 2024 presidential election, failing to predict his victory.
- How did online betting companies' predictions compare to those of traditional pollsters?
- Online betting companies, using prediction markets, more accurately predicted Trump's victory than traditional polls, highlighting the limitations of the latter.
- What criticisms have been leveled against the polling industry in the aftermath of the 2024 election?
- Critics, including historians and pollsters, have pointed to the limitations and flaws of current polling methodologies and the undue influence of media coverage.