AP's Election Reporting Process

AP's Election Reporting Process

theguardian.com

AP's Election Reporting Process

The Associated Press's election reporting process, including how they predict winners, account for reporting biases, and handle varying reporting speeds across states.

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David Scott
Why are some places slower than others to report results? Could you give an example?
The speed of reporting varies greatly. Florida's efficient system allows quick results, while California's prioritization of maximum participation, with mail-in ballots arriving after election day, leads to slower reporting.
What are the key sources of information that the AP Decision Team relies on to make its calls?
The AP Decision Team relies on 4,000 reporters in county election offices across the country who report vote totals. They also utilize direct feeds from some states and counties, websites, and even social media posts.
One question that comes up every election cycle is: how can the AP know the winner of a race when there are still so many votes left to be counted?
The AP determines a winner by assessing if the trailing candidate can realistically catch the leader, considering remaining uncounted votes. If there's a possibility of a change, they wait to call the race.
And how does your team account for the “red mirage” or “blue shift”, when the first batch of reported votes might skew more toward one party?
A "red mirage" occurs when early reporting favors Republicans due to rural areas reporting first, while a "blue shift" happens later when Democratic-leaning urban areas report. The AP accounts for these geographical differences in vote reporting.
In 2020, we were waiting on the results in Pennsylvania for days. Do you anticipate that happening again, or is there another state that could lag in counting this year?
The time to declare a presidential winner depends heavily on how close the race is. The AP doesn't make political predictions but states that the outcome rests with the voters.