cbsnews.com
Asteroid 2024 YR4: 3% Chance of Earth Impact in 2032
Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered in December 2023, has a 3.1% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032, according to NASA, based on a shrinking uncertainty region in its trajectory; the European Space Agency estimates the probability at 2.8%.
- How does the shrinking "uncertainty" region in the asteroid's trajectory affect the calculated impact probability?
- The rising impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 reflects improved understanding of its trajectory, not a change in the asteroid's path itself. The shrinking uncertainty region, coupled with Earth's fixed size within that region, mathematically increases the collision probability. Despite the increased percentage, a 97% chance remains that the asteroid will miss Earth.
- What is the current probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth, and what factors contribute to this assessment?
- Asteroid 2024 YR4, initially with a 1% chance of impacting Earth, now has a 3.1% probability of striking our planet on December 22, 2032, according to NASA. This increased risk is due to a shrinking "uncertainty" region in the asteroid's trajectory, making Earth occupy a larger portion of that region. The European Space Agency estimates the probability slightly lower, at 2.8%.
- What are the implications of 2024 YR4 becoming unobservable for four years after April, and how might future observations alter the risk assessment?
- Continued observation of 2024 YR4 by the James Webb Space Telescope before April, when it becomes unobservable for four years, is crucial. Further trajectory refinement will likely reduce the impact probability to below 1% before April. A close flyby of Earth could moderately increase the probability again but is unlikely to necessitate immediate action.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The framing emphasizes the increased probability of impact, using strong language like "highest probability ever assigned" and "steadily increased". While the overall tone attempts to downplay alarm, the repeated focus on the rising percentage creates a sense of increased risk. The headline itself likely contributes to this framing.
Language Bias
The language used, while aiming for factual reporting, sometimes leans towards sensationalism. Phrases like "city killer" and descriptions of probability increases carry emotional weight. More neutral phrasing could be used, for example, instead of "city killer," a description of the asteroid's potential destructive capabilities based on its size could be provided.
Bias by Omission
The article focuses heavily on the probability of impact, but omits discussion of the potential damage an asteroid of this size could cause beyond mentioning "city killer" and the destruction of a mid-sized city. It also doesn't discuss potential mitigation strategies being considered or developed by space agencies.
False Dichotomy
The article presents a false dichotomy by focusing solely on the probability of impact (3% chance of hitting vs. 97% chance of missing) without adequately exploring the range of potential outcomes within the 3% probability. The impact could range from minimal damage to catastrophic destruction depending on the asteroid's size and trajectory.