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Asteroid 2024 YR4: Highest Impact Probability Ever Recorded

Asteroid 2024 YR4, estimated to be 40 to 90 meters wide, currently holds the highest impact probability ever recorded for an asteroid larger than 30 meters, with a revised 1.5% chance of colliding with Earth in December 2032; this is based on updated observations and calculations from NASA, exceeding the previous record held by Apophis.

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TechnologyScienceNasaNear-Earth ObjectAsteroid 2024 Yr4Impact ProbabilityTorino ScaleSpace Science

NasaEuropean Space AgencyMassachusetts Institute Of TechnologyInternational Astronomical Union

Richard Binzel

What is the current probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in 2032, and why is this significant?: Asteroid 2024 YR4, initially assessed with a 3.1% chance of impacting Earth in 2032 by NASA and 2.8% by the ESA, now has a revised 1.5% chance of collision based on new observations. This surpasses the previous record held by Apophis, making 2024 YR4 the riskiest asteroid detected in two decades. The discrepancy in initial estimations stems from differing orbit determination methods.
What future observational strategies are planned to refine the risk assessment of 2024 YR4, and what are the potential outcomes?: Continued monitoring of 2024 YR4 using ground-based and space-based telescopes, including the James Webb Space Telescope, is crucial for precise orbit determination. This ongoing tracking will further refine the impact probability, likely reducing uncertainty and potentially eliminating the risk completely. The case underscores the importance of proactive asteroid surveillance and the iterative nature of risk assessment in space.
How do the different impact probability calculations by NASA and the ESA reflect the challenges of asteroid trajectory prediction?: The fluctuating impact probability reflects the refinement of orbital calculations as more observational data becomes available. Both NASA and ESA's risk assessments, while initially varying slightly, highlight the challenges in predicting asteroid trajectories far in advance. The current 1.5% chance, though reduced from initial estimates, still merits continued observation and analysis.

Cognitive Concepts

1/5

Framing Bias

The framing is largely neutral. While the headline highlights the asteroid as the "riskiest ever detected," the article subsequently clarifies that this is based on current data and that the probability is expected to fluctuate. The article presents the concerns and reassurances from scientists fairly.

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