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Bank of Canada Rate Cut Odds Rise
Analysis of market expectations and economist opinions on the Bank of Canada's likely interest rate cut in December, following a mixed October jobs report.
English
Canada
EconomyLabour MarketInterest RatesMarket AnalysisJobsPrediction
Bank Of CanadaCibcRoyal Bank Of CanadaCapital EconomicsTd Economics
Andrew GranthamNathan JanzenThomas RyanJames OrlandoDouglas Porter
- What is the main focus of the news article?
- Traders are betting on a large interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada in December, driven by a weaker-than-expected jobs report, Trump's re-election, and another Fed rate cut.
- What were the key findings of the October Canadian jobs report?
- The October jobs report showed a net addition of 14,500 jobs, below analysts' estimates of 25,000, with the unemployment rate remaining at 6.5%. Wages for permanent employees rose.
- What are the market-implied probabilities for the Bank of Canada's December rate cut?
- Implied probabilities from overnight index swaps markets show a 58% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut on December 11th and a 42% chance of a 25 basis point cut.
- What factors will influence the Bank of Canada's final decision on the interest rate cut?
- The Bank of Canada's decision will depend on upcoming economic data, including another jobs report, inflation figures, and other indicators before their December meeting.
- What are the differing opinions of economists regarding the size of the upcoming rate cut?
- Economists' opinions are divided, with some expecting a 50 basis point cut based on continued labour market softness, while others lean towards a 25 basis point cut given recent jobs data and other economic indicators.