dw.com
Belarus Leadership Transition: Ruling Class Poised for Succession
A new study, "In Lukashenko's Shadow," predicts a power transition in Belarus within the next decade, identifying current ruling class members, particularly Lukashenko's family and economic technocrats, as the most likely successors. The study analyzed 211 officials, highlighting the diversity of the Belarusian elite.
- What are the most likely scenarios for leadership succession in Belarus given Lukashenko's aging and the inherent instability within the ruling class?
- A new study by Astapenya and Matsukevich suggests that a change in Belarusian leadership is likely within the next decade, with current ruling class members as the most probable successors. The study analyzed data on 211 Belarusian officials, revealing an average age of around 50 and a diverse regional representation, dispelling previous assumptions of concentrated power.
- How do the differing interests and potential actions of the five identified groups within Lukashenko's elite shape the prospects for a smooth or turbulent power transition?
- The researchers identified five groups within Lukashenko's elite: family, administrative vertical, economic technocrats, security forces, and business. Each group's interests regarding a power transition vary, with the family seeking to maintain influence, the technocrats aiming for system normalization, and the security forces prioritizing the status quo. The study highlights the potential for the business sector to become a political player.
- What are the potential long-term political and societal consequences of different succession scenarios in Belarus, considering the possibility of continued authoritarianism or a shift towards a more liberal model?
- The study indicates that a controlled transition, orchestrated by Lukashenko while he retains strength, is most likely, potentially involving a loyal official, security figure, or family member—with Viktor Lukashenko viewed as the most probable successor due to his guaranteed loyalty and existing connections. An uncontrolled transition, however, could lead to wide-ranging consequences and instability depending on the circumstances.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The framing emphasizes the perspective of the current ruling class and their potential successors. While acknowledging different factions within the elite, the analysis centers on their internal power struggles and strategies for maintaining control. This focus might inadvertently downplay potential challenges to the regime from outside the established power structure. The headline, if it existed, would likely have further shaped this perspective.
Language Bias
The language used is generally neutral and descriptive, avoiding overtly biased terminology. However, the repeated references to the ruling class as "Lukashenko's elite" subtly frames them as extensions of the president's authority, potentially influencing the reader's perception of their autonomy and potential for independent action. More neutral terms like "the Belarusian ruling class" or "the Belarusian political elite" could be used to mitigate this effect.
Bias by Omission
The analysis focuses heavily on the potential successors to Lukashenko and the various factions within the Belarusian power structure. However, it omits discussion of potential opposition figures or movements outside the current ruling class, limiting the scope of potential outcomes and neglecting alternative perspectives on the future of Belarus. The lack of this outside perspective could mislead readers into believing that the transition of power will occur solely within the confines of the existing elite.
False Dichotomy
The analysis presents a somewhat simplified dichotomy between a controlled transition orchestrated by Lukashenko and an uncontrolled transition resulting from unforeseen circumstances (illness, death, etc.). It doesn't fully explore the spectrum of possibilities between these two extremes, such as a gradual shift in power dynamics or a more contested transition involving significant societal upheaval.
Gender Bias
The analysis notes the dominance of men in the Belarusian power structure, pointing out the rarity of women in leadership positions. While acknowledging this imbalance, it doesn't delve deeply into the underlying causes or the implications of this gender disparity for the future political landscape. Further investigation into this aspect would enrich the analysis.
Sustainable Development Goals
The article analyzes the potential for a power transition in Belarus, assessing the roles of various groups within the ruling class. This analysis contributes to understanding the stability and potential for institutional reform in the country, directly relating to SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions) which promotes peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provides access to justice for all and builds effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels. The study of potential successors and their likely approaches to governance is crucial for predicting future political stability and the potential for improvements in justice and institutional effectiveness.