theguardian.com
Betting Markets Shift: Harris Gains Ground on Trump
Betting markets show a narrowing race between Trump and Harris as election day nears, with Harris gaining ground.
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United Kingdom
PoliticsUs PoliticsElectionMarketsPredictionBetting
PolymarketKalshiPredictitWall Street Journal
Donald TrumpKamala HarrisThéo
- What factors influence the changes in betting odds?
- The narrowing of betting markets reflects a shift in perceived probability of each candidate's victory, incorporating various factors such as recent polls and public sentiment.
- How have betting markets shifted in the lead-up to the election?
- Betting markets initially favored Donald Trump, but his odds have decreased significantly as election day approaches, with Kamala Harris even taking the lead on one platform.
- What controversy arose recently concerning a significant bet in these markets?
- A large bet of over \$30 million placed on Trump's victory raised questions, but both the bettor and Polymarket maintained it was not an attempt to manipulate the market.
- What platforms are prominently used for political betting, and how do they work?
- Platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt have gained popularity, offering users the chance to bet on political futures contracts, which drive the perceived probability of outcomes.
- How do the recent shifts in betting markets compare to Trump's previous claims about their accuracy?
- While betting markets were initially touted by Trump's allies as more accurate than traditional polls, this latest shift shows the dynamic and unpredictable nature of election forecasting.