t24.com.tr
Deutsche Bank: Turkey's Economy on a Path to Soft Landing
Deutsche Bank forecasts Turkey's economy to experience a soft landing, with 2.9% growth in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025, driven by tight monetary policy and expected disinflation; however, more supportive policies could yield stronger growth, and risks remain.
- How does Deutsche Bank assess the trajectory of inflation in Turkey, and what are the potential risks to this outlook?
- The prediction is based on the assumption of continued orthodox economic policies prioritizing inflation reduction. However, more supportive policies could lead to stronger growth. The report highlights that disinflation is expected to continue next year due to weakening domestic demand, improved inflation expectations, and the real appreciation of the Turkish lira.
- What is Deutsche Bank's projection for Turkey's economic growth in 2024 and 2025, and what are the key factors driving this forecast?
- Deutsche Bank projects Turkey's economy to experience a soft landing, with growth at 2.9% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025. This follows a period of cooling, driven by tight monetary policy curbing consumption and investment. The report anticipates a return to stronger growth in 2026.
- What is Deutsche Bank's projection for the Turkish Central Bank's monetary policy in 2025, and how could this impact economic growth?
- The report forecasts a gradual decline in inflation, reaching 45% by the end of 2024 and 25.4% by the end of 2025. The Central Bank is expected to start lowering interest rates in 2024, reaching 37.5% in the first half of 2025 and 30% by year-end, but this could be slower depending on economic conditions. Macroprudential policies, such as TL deposit targets and credit ceilings, are expected to continue in 2025 to manage financial conditions during this easing cycle.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The framing emphasizes Deutsche Bank's optimistic outlook. The headline (if there were one) and the repeated emphasis on "soft landing" and "gradual cooling" create a positive narrative that might overshadow potential downsides.
Language Bias
While the language is largely factual, the repeated use of phrases like "soft landing," "gradual cooling," and "constructive view" subtly leans toward optimism. These could be replaced with more neutral terms like "economic slowdown," "cooling economy," and "positive outlook" for improved objectivity.
Bias by Omission
The analysis focuses heavily on Deutsche Bank's predictions and doesn't include other economic forecasts or perspectives. The potential impact of global economic factors beyond the US is also not thoroughly explored. Omission of counterarguments or dissenting viewpoints weakens the analysis.
False Dichotomy
The report presents a somewhat simplified view of the economic future, focusing on a "soft landing" scenario without fully exploring the potential for alternative outcomes or significant risks. While acknowledging upward risks to inflation, it doesn't delve into scenarios where these risks materialize.