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Election Impact on Bond Market
Analysis of the potential impact of the US presidential election on the bond market, with expert opinions and yield predictions.
English
United States
PoliticsEconomyUs PoliticsElectionMarketsBonds
Wharton School Of The University Of PennsylvaniaCnbcWolfe ResearchFederal Reserve
Donald TrumpKamala HarrisJeremy SiegelStephanie Roth
- What is the potential impact of a Republican victory on the bond market?
- A Republican sweep could lead to higher bond yields due to potential tax cuts and increased inflationary pressures from a potential global trade war.
- What is considered the most favorable election outcome for the markets and why?
- A split Congress is considered the most favorable outcome for the markets, as it would likely prevent either candidate from fully implementing their economic plans.
- What are investor concerns about the fiscal policies of the presidential candidates?
- Investors are concerned about the lack of fiscal discipline discussed by both candidates, potentially leading to higher yields demanded in exchange for holding Treasury bonds.
- What is the current state of the 10-year Treasury yield and what are the predictions for it based on the election outcome?
- The 10-year Treasury yield has significantly increased recently, reaching above 4.3%, and is projected to rise further with a Trump victory or fall with a Harris win.
- What is Stephanie Roth's prediction for the 10-year Treasury yield and how much of the yield increase this year does she attribute to the election?
- Stephanie Roth predicts a range of 4% to 4.5% for the 10-year Treasury yield depending on the election outcome, attributing about 20 basis points of the yield increase this year to the election.