fr.euronews.com
EU Population: Aging Trend and Projected Decline by 2100
In early 2024, the EU population was 449.3 million, up 0.3% from 2023; however, it's projected to decrease to 419.5 million by 2100, with a significantly older population and a rising median age of 50.2 years.
- What is the current demographic situation in the EU, and what are its immediate consequences?
- In early 2024, the EU population reached an estimated 449.3 million, a 0.3% increase from 2023 (400,000 more inhabitants) and a 2.9% increase over the past decade. The proportion of people aged 65 and over rose in 26 of 27 EU countries compared to 2023, with only Malta showing a decrease.
- What are the long-term demographic projections for the EU by 2100, and what societal challenges will this pose?
- By 2100, the EU population is projected to decline to 419.5 million, with the median age rising to 50.2 years (a 5.5-year increase from 2024). The proportion of people aged 80 or older is expected to increase 2.5 times, from 6.1% to 15.3%, significantly impacting social security systems and healthcare.
- How do varying fertility rates and life expectancy contribute to the aging population trend across different EU member states?
- This aging population trend is driven by increased life expectancy and consistently low fertility rates, placing a greater burden on the working-age population to fund social services for the elderly. In 2024, Italy, Portugal, Bulgaria, Finland, Greece, and Croatia had the highest proportion of over-65s (24.3% to 23.0%), while Luxembourg and Ireland had the lowest (15.0% and 15.5%).
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The framing emphasizes the challenges posed by an aging population, highlighting the increasing proportion of older people and the potential burden on the working-age population. While presenting factual data, the emphasis on potential negative consequences might influence the reader's perception of the overall situation. The headline (if one existed) would likely strongly influence the framing. For example, a headline like "EU Faces Looming Crisis of Aging Population" would create a more negative frame than a more neutral headline.
Language Bias
The language used is largely neutral and objective, presenting statistical data without overtly emotional or judgmental language. Terms such as "burden" in relation to the working-age population could be considered slightly loaded, but this is arguably a fair description of the economic implications of population aging.
Bias by Omission
The provided text focuses on population aging trends in the EU, offering statistics on age groups and median age. However, it omits discussion of potential contributing factors such as migration patterns (both immigration and emigration), government policies impacting birth rates (e.g., family leave policies, child care support), and economic conditions influencing family size decisions. These omissions limit a complete understanding of the demographic shifts.
Sustainable Development Goals
The aging population in the EU, with a rising proportion of people over 65 and a shrinking working-age population, could exacerbate existing inequalities. This demographic shift may lead to increased strain on social welfare systems and potentially widen the gap between different socioeconomic groups, particularly if resources are not adequately distributed to meet the needs of an aging population. The text highlights the increasing burden on the working-age population to support the growing elderly population, which may lead to increased inequality.