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$French Trader's \$50 Million Election Win$

telegraph.co.uk

French Trader's \$50 Million Election Win

A French trader successfully bet \$30 million on Donald Trump winning the US election, using neighbor surveys instead of mainstream polls, generating a near \$50 million profit.

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PoliticsUs PoliticsElectionFinancePredictionBetting

PolymarketWall Street Journal

Donald TrumpKamala HarrisThéo

What are the broader implications of this story?: Théo's success highlights the limitations of traditional polling and showcases an alternative approach that defied mainstream expectations. His considerable winnings demonstrate the potential of unconventional strategies in political betting.
Who is the "Trump whale" and what was their successful bet?: A French trader, known as "Théo" or "Trump whale", made a successful bet of over \$30 million on Donald Trump winning the US presidential election, using a unique approach to polling data analysis.
What were the trader's predictions, and what were the results?: Théo predicted Trump would win the popular vote and six out of seven battleground states, a prediction that ultimately proved partially correct. His successful strategy yielded almost \$50 million in profit.
What unconventional method did the trader use to predict the election outcome?: Théo utilized "neighbor surveys" which ask who people think their neighbors will vote for, instead of relying on traditional polling methods. He believed French polling data was more accurate than US polls in this election cycle.
What platform was used for the bet, and what information has been confirmed by the platform?: He made his bets using four anonymous accounts on Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform. Polymarket has confirmed that the trader is a French national with a financial services background.

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