sueddeutsche.de
German Construction Industry Forecasts Continued Turnover Decline in 2025
Germany's construction industry forecasts a continued decline in turnover for 2025 despite a recent order increase in November 2024, citing insufficient orders and calling for governmental policy changes to boost the sector.
- What is the primary factor contributing to the projected decline in German construction industry turnover in 2025, and what are its immediate consequences?
- The German construction industry anticipates a fifth consecutive year of declining turnover in 2025, despite a recent surge in orders. This is due to insufficient overall incoming orders, impacting both residential and infrastructure projects. Despite November showing a positive order increase, the overall outlook remains negative.
- How did the November 2024 order figures impact the overall forecast for the German construction industry, and what are the underlying causes for the persistent decline?
- While November 2024 saw a real order increase of 7.9 percent compared to October and 16.6 percent compared to November 2023, the German construction industry projects a real turnover decrease of 3.5 percent for 2024 and 1.4 percent for 2025. This is linked to the broader economic slowdown in Germany, as the sector provides minimal growth impetus.
- What systemic issues within the German construction industry and its regulatory environment contribute to the persistent lack of growth, and what policy changes are needed for a substantial improvement?
- Falling interest rates offer hope for a boost in demand, as cheaper mortgages could stimulate construction activity. However, the industry emphasizes the need for governmental support to significantly increase construction output, citing a need for a 'restart in construction policy.' The lack of sufficient orders points towards systemic issues requiring policy interventions beyond short-term economic fluctuations.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The headline and lead paragraph immediately establish a negative tone by emphasizing the expected continued decline in sales. While positive developments are mentioned, they are presented as minor exceptions to the overall negative trend. The repeated use of words like "minus," "schwächelnde," and "rückgang" reinforces this negative framing.
Language Bias
The article uses language that leans towards negativity, such as "abgeschrieben" (written off), "schwächelnde" (weakening), and "Umsatzminus" (revenue minus). While these are accurate descriptions, the repeated use of such terms contributes to an overall pessimistic tone. More neutral alternatives could be used to provide a more balanced perspective. For instance, "decline" instead of "Umsatzminus.
Bias by Omission
The article focuses heavily on the negative aspects of the construction industry's performance, mentioning positive developments (November's order increase) but downplaying their significance. It omits discussion of potential contributing factors beyond the control of the industry, such as material shortages or regulatory hurdles. The lack of diverse perspectives, for example from government officials involved in construction policy, could limit the readers' understanding of the complexity of the issue.
False Dichotomy
The article presents a somewhat simplistic dichotomy between the industry's struggles and the potential for improvement through lower interest rates and government action. It doesn't explore alternative solutions or acknowledge the possibility of long-term structural problems within the industry itself.
Gender Bias
The article focuses primarily on statements from male leaders in the industry (Hübner and Pakleppa). While this might reflect the actual gender balance in leadership positions, the lack of female voices could unintentionally reinforce gender stereotypes and limit the diversity of perspectives presented.
Sustainable Development Goals
The German construction industry is experiencing a sustained decline in revenue, impacting employment and economic growth. The article highlights consecutive years of negative growth, impacting jobs and overall economic contribution of the sector. The uncertainty and lack of sufficient orders threaten the stability of construction companies and employment within the sector.