welt.de
German Exports to Shift from US to EU Amidst Rising Protectionism
Deloitte projects a 3.2% annual decrease in German exports to the US by 2035 due to trade barriers, but a 2.5% annual increase in exports to the EU's top ten markets, potentially exceeding US losses if the EU eliminates trade obstacles.
- What are the main obstacles hindering growth in trade between Germany and other EU countries?
- The study highlights the EU's untapped potential for German industry, emphasizing that eliminating existing trade barriers could significantly boost growth. Currently, the bureaucratic burden on German businesses trading within the EU adds up to 44% of the cost of industrial goods, according to the IMF.
- What is the predicted impact of increasing US trade protectionism on German exports, and how might this be offset?
- Deloitte's new study predicts a 3.2% annual decline in German exports to the US by 2035 due to increasing trade barriers, resulting in a drop from €84 billion to €59 billion in ten years. Conversely, exports to the EU's top ten markets are projected to increase by 2.5% annually, potentially offsetting US losses.
- What is the potential for increased growth in the German-EU market if existing trade barriers are reduced, and which industries would benefit the most?
- By removing half of these barriers, annual growth in trade with most EU countries could increase by an additional 1%, potentially doubling with complete removal. Sectors like machinery and electronics would benefit most, while the impact on autos and chemicals would be less significant due to their currently lower trade barriers within Europe.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The framing emphasizes the negative impact of US trade barriers on German exports and positions the EU market as a promising alternative. The headline and introduction highlight the potential losses in the US market and subsequent benefits from focusing on the EU market. This framing, while not overtly biased, strongly influences the reader's interpretation towards viewing EU market expansion as the preferred solution.
Language Bias
The language used is generally neutral and objective, relying on factual data and expert quotes. While the article highlights the negative aspects of US trade policies, it does so by presenting statistics and expert opinions rather than resorting to emotionally charged language. Therefore, there's no substantial Language Bias.
Bias by Omission
The analysis focuses heavily on the economic consequences for German exports, particularly the potential losses in the US market and gains in the European market. However, it omits discussion of the potential impacts on other countries or industries outside of Germany and the EU. It also doesn't explore the potential social or political consequences of shifting trade relationships. The article could benefit from a broader perspective considering the global implications of these shifts.
False Dichotomy
The article presents a somewhat simplified dichotomy between the US and EU markets for German exports. While it acknowledges that stronger growth within Europe could offset losses in the US, it doesn't fully explore the complexity of diversifying trade relations and the potential for growth in other markets outside of the EU and US. The focus on eitheor scenario is a bit restrictive.
Sustainable Development Goals
The article highlights that stronger growth within Europe could more than offset a shrinking US business for German exports. Removing trade barriers within the EU could significantly boost growth, benefiting industries like machinery and electronics. This directly contributes to decent work and economic growth by expanding market opportunities and stimulating economic activity within the EU.