de.euronews.com
Glaciers Won't Recover for Centuries Even With Temporary 1.5°C Exceedance
A new study reveals that mountain glaciers will not recover for centuries if global warming temporarily exceeds 1.5°C, even if temperatures later return to safer levels, with significant implications for sea-level rise and downstream communities.
- What are the irreversible impacts of even a temporary exceedance of the 1.5°C global warming limit on mountain glaciers, and what is the timeframe for potential recovery?
- New research shows that mountain glaciers will not recover for centuries if global warming temporarily exceeds 1.5°C. This is the first study to simulate glacier changes up to 2500 under 'overshoot scenarios,' where the planet surpasses the 1.5°C limit by up to 3°C before cooling down. Current climate policies are pushing the Earth toward almost 3°C warming, making this study's findings particularly relevant.
- How does the simulated 'overshoot scenario' of exceeding 1.5°C by up to 3°C affect glacier mass loss compared to a scenario where the 1.5°C limit is not exceeded, and what are the implications for sea-level rise?
- The study simulates a scenario where global warming peaks at 3°C around 2150 before falling to 1.5°C by 2300. Under this scenario, glaciers could lose up to 16 percent more mass by 2200 and 11 percent more by 2500 compared to a world staying below 1.5°C. This is in addition to the 35% already expected to melt at 1.5°C. Glacier melt since 2000 has already raised sea levels by almost 2 centimeters.
- What are the specific, long-term consequences of 'trough water'—the decreased glacier runoff after temperature peaks—for downstream communities reliant on glacier-fed water systems, and how does this impact vary geographically?
- The researchers found that even smaller glaciers in the Alps, Himalayas, and tropical Andes will not recover until after 2500. Fluctuations in glacier meltwater will significantly impact downstream communities. About half of the basins studied will experience 'trough water' after 2100, where glacier runoff decreases more after temperature peaks than with stabilization, potentially impacting water resources.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The framing emphasizes the irreversible damage to glaciers if the 1.5°C limit is exceeded, even temporarily. The headline and opening paragraphs immediately establish this negative consequence. While this is factually accurate, it could be perceived as alarmist by some, potentially overshadowing the importance of long-term efforts to mitigate climate change.
Language Bias
The language used is largely neutral and factual, employing scientific terminology. Terms like "dire consequences" and "irreversible damage" are used, but these are justified given the gravity of the situation and are not overtly emotional or manipulative.
Bias by Omission
The analysis focuses on the impact of exceeding the 1.5°C threshold, but omits discussion of potential mitigation strategies or technological advancements that could help lessen the negative effects on glaciers. While acknowledging space constraints is valid, including a brief mention of such possibilities would have provided a more balanced perspective.
False Dichotomy
The study presents a clear dichotomy between staying below 1.5°C and exceeding it, with dire consequences highlighted for the latter. While this simplifies a complex issue, it effectively underscores the urgency of the climate crisis and the importance of limiting warming.
Sustainable Development Goals
The study reveals that even a temporary exceedance of the 1.5°C global warming limit will cause irreversible damage to glaciers for centuries, impacting sea levels and freshwater resources. The projected mass loss of glaciers, even with a return to 1.5°C, highlights the severity of exceeding this threshold and the long-term consequences for climate systems. The study directly addresses the need for urgent climate action to mitigate the devastating effects of global warming on glaciers and related ecosystems.