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Goldman Sachs' Election Market Predictions
Goldman Sachs models four election scenarios and their impact on the S&P 500, predicting volatility but an eventual relief rally.
English
United States
EconomyUs PoliticsElectionStock MarketPredictionVolatility
Goldman SachsS&P 500Nasdaq
Donald TrumpKamala Harris
- What is Goldman Sachs's least likely scenario and its predicted impact on the S&P 500?
- The least likely scenario is a Harris win and a Democratic sweep of Congress, potentially causing a 3% drop in the S&P 500 due to anticipated corporate tax increases.
- What is Goldman Sachs's overall assessment of market volatility surrounding the election?
- Goldman Sachs's analysis highlights the significant market volatility expected around the election, with the firm predicting a relief rally regardless of the outcome.
- What is Goldman Sachs's prediction for the S&P 500 if Trump wins and Republicans sweep Congress?
- Goldman Sachs predicts a 3% increase in the S&P 500 if Trump wins and Republicans sweep Congress, benefiting financial and cyclical stocks. A divided government under Trump would yield a 1.5% gain, with lower Treasury yields potentially offsetting fiscal concerns.
- What is the predicted impact on the S&P 500 if Kamala Harris wins and Democrats take control of Congress?
- A Democratic sweep with Harris winning is predicted to cause a 3% drop in the S&P 500 due to potential tax increases. If Harris wins but Congress remains divided, a 1.5% drop is projected, though investors might buy the dip.
- What election outcome does Goldman Sachs consider most likely, and what is its market prediction for that scenario?
- The most likely scenario, according to Goldman Sachs, is a Harris victory with a divided government, resulting in a 1.5% decline in the S&P 500. This scenario would likely favor secular growth and Nasdaq stocks.