kathimerini.gr
Greek Exports Forecast: 3-4% Growth in 2025 Amidst Market Uncertainty
National Bank of Greece forecasts a 3–4% rise in Greek exports in 2025, despite a 1% decrease in 2024; growth in non-EU markets like the US and large orders offset losses in Western Europe, but uncertainty remains.
- What is the projected growth of Greek exports in 2025, and what are the major factors influencing this projection?
- Greek exports saw a 1% decrease in 2024, but a 5% increase in the second half of the year offset the 7% loss in the first half. National Bank of Greece forecasts a 3-4% increase in real terms for 2025, but warns of potential drops due to international uncertainty.
- How did the performance of traditional versus non-traditional export markets contribute to the 2024 export numbers?
- The 2024 export recovery was driven by non-traditional markets like the US (7% annual growth over three years) and large metal orders (likely for Middle Eastern energy projects), while traditional Western European markets declined by 4% on average over two years. This highlights a shift in export reliance away from Europe.
- What are the potential risks and vulnerabilities that could negatively impact the forecast growth of Greek exports in 2025?
- The outlook for 2025 is more positive due to projected European economic growth (1.4% vs. 0.8% in 2024) and a return to 2023 olive oil production levels. However, the success hinges on the stability of US trade policy and the maintenance of growth in non-European markets.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The framing emphasizes the positive aspects of Greek export growth in 2024 and optimistic projections for 2025. While acknowledging risks, the overall tone leans towards a positive outlook, potentially downplaying potential negative impacts.
Language Bias
The language used is generally neutral and objective, reporting data and expert opinions without employing overtly charged or loaded language. However, the use of phrases like "dynamic effort" and "optimistic projections" subtly conveys a positive perspective.
Bias by Omission
The analysis focuses primarily on the positive aspects of Greek export growth, mentioning potential risks but without detailed elaboration on specific threats or challenges. Omission of detailed negative factors could lead to an overly optimistic view.
False Dichotomy
The analysis presents a somewhat simplified view of the situation, focusing on the dichotomy of growth versus potential decline without fully exploring the nuances and complexities influencing the export market.
Sustainable Development Goals
The article highlights a potential 3-4% increase in Greek exports in 2025, indicating growth in the economy and potentially more jobs. While acknowledging risks, the projected increase suggests positive impacts on economic growth and employment.