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Israel and Iran: The Nuclear Brink
Analysis of the potential for a nuclear conflict between Israel and Iran, considering the roles of various actors and the strategic challenges for Israel.
English
Israel
International RelationsUs PoliticsMiddle EastRussia Ukraine WarConflictNuclear WeaponsGeopolitical RiskMilitary Strategy
IsraelIranUnited StatesRussiaNorth Korea
Donald J. TrumpVladimir PutinAli Bagheri KaniLeonid SlutskySigmund Freud
- How could an unintentional or accidental nuclear war occur between Israel and Iran?
- The risks of an Israel-Iran nuclear war depend on whether the conflict is intentional, unintentional, or accidental. Accidental war could result from mechanical malfunction or misjudgments about enemy intentions.
- What is the main threat posed by Iran to Israel in the current geopolitical landscape?
- The Middle East's strategic landscape remains unchanged despite the US presidential election. A pre-nuclear Iran poses a significant threat to Israel, potentially forcing Jerusalem into either capitulation or nuclear escalation.
- What are some scenarios that could escalate tensions between Israel and Iran into a nuclear conflict?
- A potential impasse could arise if Iran attacks Israel's Dimona reactor or uses radiation dispersal weapons. Israel might respond with a limited nuclear strike if Iran uses biological or EMP weapons; however, Russian or North Korean intervention could deter such a response.
- What strategic policy should Israel adopt to deal with the potential threat of a nuclear conflict with Iran?
- Israel should employ a coherent dialectic to guide its strategic policy toward Iran. This would involve calculated preemptive strikes against specific nuclear targets while considering potential responses from Russia and North Korea.
- What role could the United States and other nuclear powers play in shaping the situation between Israel and Iran?
- Israel should shift from "deliberate nuclear ambiguity" to "selective nuclear disclosure" to deter aggression. However, even with optimal planning, threats from Russia or North Korea could overwhelm Israel, particularly if the US does not fully support Israel.