dw.com
Japan's Nankai Earthquake: 300,000 Predicted Deaths
A new government assessment estimates that a Nankai megathrust earthquake and tsunami could kill almost 300,000 people in Japan, causing \$1.66 trillion in economic losses, prompting revisions to disaster prevention and resilience plans.
- How do the current death toll projections compare to previous estimates, and what factors have led to the revisions?
- The revised death toll of 298,000, while lower than the 2014 prediction of 323,000, still represents a significant increase in projected casualties compared to previous assessments. This updated figure is based on a more comprehensive analysis of potential tsunami impacts, building failures, and resulting fires.
- What is the projected death toll and economic damage from a potential Nankai megathrust earthquake in Japan, and what is the government's response?
- A new government estimate predicts that a Nankai megathrust earthquake and subsequent tsunami could cause nearly 300,000 deaths in Japan. This updated assessment, released on March 31, 2025, surpasses the 2012 estimate and factors in potential building collapses and fires, resulting in a revised disaster prevention plan.
- Given the increased probability of a Nankai megathrust earthquake in the next 30 years, what long-term strategies are necessary to enhance Japan's disaster resilience?
- The Japanese government's response includes a revised disaster prevention plan prioritizing high-risk areas and a new resilience plan for fiscal years 2026-2030. The increased economic loss projections of \$1.66 trillion emphasize the urgency for improved infrastructure and preparedness measures to mitigate future earthquake impacts.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The article's framing emphasizes the catastrophic potential of the earthquake and tsunami, highlighting the high death toll and economic losses. While factual, this emphasis could create undue alarm and overshadow the ongoing efforts in disaster preparedness and mitigation. The headline, if included, would likely reinforce this catastrophic framing.
Language Bias
The language used is largely neutral and factual, relying on statistics and expert opinions. Terms like "megaterremoto" and "catástrofe" are descriptive rather than emotionally charged, though the sheer scale of the predicted losses could be interpreted as implicitly alarming.
Bias by Omission
The article focuses on the potential death toll and economic losses from a megathrust earthquake, but omits discussion of potential long-term societal impacts such as the effects on the mental health of survivors, the long-term strain on resources, and the political ramifications of such a disaster. It also lacks details on the existing disaster preparedness measures in place beyond mentioning a revised plan.
False Dichotomy
The article presents a stark dichotomy between the potential scale of devastation and the seemingly limited response measures currently in place. The focus on the potential death toll implicitly presents a dichotomy between life and death, without nuance on the scale of injuries or varying levels of damage and the possibility of recovery and rebuilding efforts.
Sustainable Development Goals
The article highlights the potential for a megathrust earthquake and subsequent tsunami in Japan, leading to significant loss of life (estimated at 298,000) and widespread destruction of buildings (2.35 million). This poses a major threat to the resilience of Japanese cities and communities, hindering progress towards sustainable urban development. The government's revision of disaster prevention plans and development of a new resilience plan demonstrate a recognition of this challenge and an attempt to mitigate its impact.