kathimerini.gr
National Bank of Greece Forecasts 2.5% GDP Growth for 2025
National Bank of Greece predicts 2.5% GDP growth for 2025, exceeding budget projections, driven by favorable fiscal and monetary conditions, robust investment, and tourism's resilience despite geopolitical uncertainty. Investment is expected to increase by double digits in 2025.
- What is National Bank of Greece's GDP growth forecast for 2025, and what key factors contribute to this projection?
- National Bank of Greece forecasts 2.5% GDP growth for 2025, exceeding the 2.3% projected in the 2025 budget and the bank's previous forecast. This is attributed to favorable fiscal and monetary conditions offsetting negative impacts from increased international uncertainty. The analysis anticipates double-digit growth in fixed capital investment in 2025.
- How do factors such as increased international uncertainty and shifts in global trade affect the Greek economy's projected growth?
- The forecast is based on several factors: high capacity utilization in industry and services; accelerated final disbursements through the Recovery and Resilience Facility and the Temporary Support for Employment (around 5.7% of GDP in 2025); and reduced monetary policy interest rates (projected to reach 2% by mid-2025). Increased construction activity and strong private investment projects further bolster the projection.
- What are the long-term implications of the projected increase in fixed capital investment and the role of tourism in sustaining economic growth in Greece?
- Despite geopolitical uncertainty and a revised US approach to global trade, Greece's resilience stems from tourism's importance in exports, limited direct export exposure to the US (4.8% in 2024), and potential shifts in Germany's growth model. The analysis suggests a 2.7% GDP increase in the first quarter of 2025, driven partly by a "carryover effect" from 2024's strong performance (estimated at 1.2 percentage points).
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The headline (if one existed) and the opening sentence would likely emphasize the positive 2.5% growth prediction. The framing focuses on the positive aspects of the economic situation, highlighting the increased investments and the positive contribution of various sectors. This positive framing might overshadow potential risks or challenges.
Language Bias
The language used is generally neutral and factual. However, phrases such as "favorable fiscal and monetary conditions," "strong performance," and "robust growth" may subtly convey a positive bias, though these are common in economic reporting. More precise language could be used, for example, using data to describe rather than relying on adjectives.
Bias by Omission
The analysis focuses primarily on positive economic indicators and projections from the National Bank of Greece, potentially omitting counterarguments or less optimistic viewpoints. While geopolitical uncertainty and the US's approach to global trade are mentioned, their potential negative impacts are downplayed. The analysis could benefit from including alternative perspectives or expert opinions that offer a more balanced view.
False Dichotomy
The analysis presents a somewhat optimistic view, suggesting that positive factors outweigh negative ones, without fully exploring the complexities and potential trade-offs. For example, the reliance on tourism's resilience might overshadow other vulnerabilities in the Greek economy.
Sustainable Development Goals
The article projects a 2.5% growth rate for 2025, driven by increased investments and positive developments in the labor market. A 7.4% increase in total employee compensation in 2024 and the expectation of double-digit growth in fixed capital investments in 2025 strongly suggest progress towards decent work and economic growth. The analysis highlights the significant role of private consumption and the positive impact of government spending on infrastructure projects.