elpais.com
Rising Threat of Autogolpes: 80% Success Rate Fuels Global Democracy Concerns
A new study reveals a concerning rise in autogolpes—self-coups by democratically elected leaders—with a success rate of 80%, driven by a toxic mix of populism, polarization, and post-truth, raising concerns about the future of democracies globally, including the United States.
- What is the alarming trend regarding autogolpes and their success rate, and what are the underlying factors contributing to this?
- Autogolpes, or self-coups, are becoming increasingly common, with a third of all attempts occurring in the last decade. Unlike traditional coups, these are slow, incremental power grabs by democratically elected leaders, often succeeding due to a leader's strength and the toxic combination of populism, polarization, and post-truth.
- How do populism, polarization, and post-truth contribute to the success of autogolpes, and how do these factors neutralize citizens who would normally defend democracy?
- The success rate of autogolpes is alarmingly high—four out of five succeed, compared to only half of traditional coups. This is fueled by the "P+P+P" phenomenon: populism divides society, polarization creates irreconcilable enemies, and post-truth allows leaders to justify anti-democratic actions.
- Given the events of January 6th, 2021, and the actions of figures like Donald Trump and Elon Musk, what is the risk of a successful autogolpe in the United States, and how reversible are the current changes to democratic institutions?
- The erosion of democratic institutions through autogolpes is a significant threat globally, particularly concerning in the US given Donald Trump's actions and the potential for future attempts. The reversibility of these institutional changes and the ability of democratic systems to withstand such attacks remain crucial questions.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The article frames the discussion around the increasing frequency and success rate of autogolpes, emphasizing the threat they pose to democracy. While this is a valid concern, the framing is largely alarmist and focuses disproportionately on negative examples, potentially overlooking the resilience of democratic systems and successful efforts to counter authoritarian trends. The use of strong terms like "toxic combination" and "alarming data" contributes to this framing. The inclusion of Donald Trump and Elon Musk in the concluding paragraphs strongly suggests a biased focus on contemporary US politics, even though the article initially presented a global perspective.
Language Bias
The article uses strong, emotionally charged language such as "extravagant contortions," "sigilosamente," "desmantelando," "terremoto político," "golpe de Estado en cámara lenta," and "masivo desmantelamiento." These terms carry strong negative connotations and contribute to a sense of alarm and urgency. More neutral alternatives could include 'actions,' 'subtly,' 'dismantling,' 'political upheaval,' 'gradual erosion of power,' and 'significant institutional change.' The repeated use of "P+P+P" also reinforces a simplified and potentially biased narrative.
Bias by Omission
The article focuses heavily on autogolpes and their success rate, particularly in relation to the US, but omits discussion of successful defenses against such attempts. This omission could lead readers to believe autogolpes are inevitable or always successful, neglecting the role of active resistance and institutional resilience. The article also lacks a comparative analysis of autogolpe attempts across different political systems and their respective success rates, which could provide a more nuanced understanding. Finally, while mentioning the 'P+P+P' combination, the analysis of its effects is predominantly focused on its negative impacts, neglecting potential counter-measures or societal resistance mechanisms.
False Dichotomy
The article presents a somewhat simplistic dichotomy between 'autogolpes' and traditional coups, implying that all attempts to undermine democracy fall into one of these two categories. This framing neglects other forms of gradual or insidious erosion of democratic norms and institutions, such as the slow creep of authoritarianism through seemingly legitimate means. The article also sets up a false dichotomy between the 'pure people' and the 'corrupt elite', a common populist trope that oversimplifies complex societal dynamics and ignores the diversity of viewpoints within any given society.
Sustainable Development Goals
The article discusses the rise of autogolpes (self-coups) where democratically elected leaders dismantle institutions to stay in power. This directly undermines the rule of law, democratic institutions, and the peaceful transfer of power, all crucial aspects of SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions). The increasing frequency of successful autogolpes, particularly in the last decade, highlights a serious threat to global peace and stability and weakens institutions vital for upholding justice.