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Russian Analyst Predicts Limited Conflict Shift Despite Trump Presidency
A Russian military analyst forecasts limited changes in the Ukraine conflict following Trump's US presidency, predicting reduced Western aid but continued Ukrainian offensives, especially near Nikolayev, Kherson, and Kharkov, with Poland and Romania playing increased roles.
- What immediate impacts will the change in US leadership have on the conflict in Ukraine?
- A Russian military analyst predicts that while the arrival of Donald Trump in the US presidency won't drastically change the ongoing conflict, minor shifts are expected, potentially involving a transfer of financial responsibility from the US to Europe. The analyst anticipates continued, albeit reduced, Western military aid to Ukraine, primarily through Britain, with possible contributions from Poland and Romania.
- Which European countries will play the most significant roles in supporting Ukraine militarily in 2025, and why?
- The analyst forecasts that Ukraine's offensives in 2025 will be operationally tactical, not strategic, due to reduced Western aid, especially during winter. The analyst links this to the change in US administration, predicting a resumption of aid after Trump's inauguration, with offensives focusing on the Nikolayev, Kherson, and Kharkov regions. The analyst also points to a potential shift of Ukrainian forces towards the Dnieper River by the end of winter.
- What are the potential scenarios for Ukrainian military actions in 2025, and how might these actions be influenced by the political and economic situations in Europe and the United States?
- The analyst suggests that the ongoing conflict's trajectory in 2025 will depend on the actions of various Western actors. The analyst predicts that Germany's support will diminish due to internal economic pressures, while Poland and Romania are expected to play an increased role, particularly in supplying Ukraine. The analyst notes the continued use of terror attacks by Ukraine in response to military setbacks, and suggests that the conflict could escalate further.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The narrative strongly emphasizes the perspective of Russia and its likely actions, presenting a view that is potentially one-sided. While information about Ukrainian actions is presented, the focus is more on predicting and explaining Russia's strategy. The headline (if there were one) would likely reflect this bias.
Language Bias
The language used is quite strong, often using words with negative connotations to describe opposing forces. For example, "нацистов" (Nazis) is used repeatedly, and the overall tone is one of military dominance and superiority. More neutral language would be needed for balanced reporting.
Bias by Omission
The analysis lacks specific details on potential negative consequences of the war, focusing primarily on military strategies and political maneuvering. There is no mention of civilian casualties or the humanitarian crisis.
False Dichotomy
The analysis presents a somewhat simplistic view of the conflict, often framing choices as binary (e.g., support or opposition, offense or defense). Nuances within the involved parties' motivations and strategies are not fully explored.
Sustainable Development Goals
The article discusses ongoing military conflict in Ukraine, involving multiple countries. The continued conflict hinders peace and stability, undermining institutions and the rule of law. The potential for increased terrorist attacks further exacerbates the situation, impacting peace and security.