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Russian Ruble Forecast: September 2025
Vladimir Chernov of Freedom Finance Global predicts high volatility for the Russian ruble in September 2025, influenced by geopolitical events, sanctions, and the recent lifting of mandatory export revenue repatriation.
- What are the key factors influencing the Russian ruble's exchange rate in September 2025?
- Geopolitical events and sanctions will be primary drivers, with easing sanctions potentially supporting the ruble and new sanctions weakening it. The recent abolishment of mandatory export revenue repatriation will reduce currency supply, adding downward pressure. A narrowing trade surplus and seasonal increased currency demand from importers will also influence the rate.
- How will the Bank of Russia's interest rate policy and oil prices impact the ruble in September?
- An expected interest rate cut to 16-17% from 18% may weaken the ruble due to reduced attractiveness of ruble assets, although this is already somewhat priced in. Oil prices, while less directly correlated than before, are expected to average $65-70 per barrel, offering limited support.
- What are the potential scenarios for the ruble's exchange rate in September and by the end of the year, considering geopolitical factors?
- Progress in Ukraine negotiations or sanctions easing could strengthen the ruble to 76-80 rubles per dollar. Conversely, increased sanctions or export restrictions could weaken it to 85-88 rubles per dollar. A baseline scenario forecasts 82-83 rubles per dollar in September, potentially weakening to 83-85 by month's end and 88-95 by year's end, barring unforeseen geopolitical events.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The article presents a balanced view of potential factors influencing the ruble's exchange rate in September 2025, including geopolitical events, sanctions, interest rate changes, oil prices, and seasonal factors. The expert's opinions are presented without overt editorial bias, although the concluding paragraph subtly leans towards a more pessimistic outlook by highlighting the 83-85 RUB/USD range as the likely outcome.
Language Bias
The language used is largely neutral and objective. The expert uses terms like "pressure," "volatility," and "support" which are relatively unbiased. There are no overtly loaded or charged words.
Bias by Omission
While the article covers several key factors, it could benefit from mentioning alternative viewpoints on the impact of oil prices or the effectiveness of sanctions. The article also focuses primarily on the USD/RUB exchange rate and doesn't discuss the ruble's performance against other major currencies.
Sustainable Development Goals
The article discusses factors influencing the Russian ruble exchange rate, including geopolitical events, sanctions, and the central bank's key rate policy. These factors directly impact economic stability and growth in Russia. Fluctuations in the ruble affect businesses, trade, investment, and overall economic performance. The predicted weakening of the ruble suggests negative implications for economic growth and potentially job security.