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Russian Ruble Weakening: Geopolitical Factors and Economic Slowdown

The Russian ruble experienced a sharp depreciation in September 2025 due to a confluence of factors, including geopolitical tensions, weaker-than-expected central bank action, decreased export revenues, and increased import demand.

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Russian

Russia

International RelationsEconomySanctionsGeopolitical RisksRussian EconomyCurrency Exchange RateRubl

Freedom Finance GlobalForexbyGis MiningЦб Рф

Наталья МильчаковаМарк ГойхманВасилий Гиря

What are the primary factors contributing to the recent sharp weakening of the Russian ruble in September 2025?: The primary factors are geopolitical risks, including anticipated US sanctions and concerns over a lenient central bank interest rate decision. Additionally, weak oil prices, slowing GDP growth (to 1.1%), a rising budget deficit, and a decline in key sectors like metallurgy and freight transport have contributed. The government's decision to lift mandatory currency sales by exporters also exacerbated the situation.
How did the reduction in export revenues and the increase in import demand interact to influence the ruble's value?: Export revenues fell by 3.5% in August 2025, including a 7.7% drop in oil prices, while the cancellation of mandatory currency sales by exporters reduced August sales to a 3.5-year low of \$6.2 billion. Simultaneously, import demand surged by 27% to \$33.4 billion in August, due to post-summer activity, increased lending, and a 1.5% rise in the money supply. This supply-demand imbalance created a currency deficit, driving up the price.
What are the potential future scenarios for the ruble's exchange rate, considering the current economic and geopolitical climate?: Experts predict continued ruble weakening until the end of 2025, potentially reaching 90-91 rubles per dollar and 106-107 rubles per euro. However, a geopolitical breakthrough, including a resolution to the Ukrainian conflict and sanctions relief, could reverse this trend. The central bank's monetary policy will also play a key role, with more aggressive rate cuts potentially increasing downward pressure.

Cognitive Concepts

1/5

Bias by Omission

While the experts provide a comprehensive overview, potential omissions could include the impact of specific government policies beyond those mentioned, or the influence of global economic trends unrelated to Russia. However, given the scope of the discussion, such omissions are likely unintentional.

Sustainable Development Goals

Decent Work and Economic Growth Negative

Direct Relevance

The article discusses the decline in Russia

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