mk.ru
Russia's August Oil and Gas Revenue Plunge: Causes, Impacts, and Forecasts
Russia's August oil and gas revenues plummeted 32% year-on-year to 620.6 billion rubles, driven by lower oil prices, reduced taxes, a stronger ruble, sanctions, and export shifts, increasing the risk of a larger federal budget deficit.
- What caused the sharp decline in Russia's oil and gas revenues in August?
- The main cause was a 32% year-on-year decrease in oil and gas extraction taxes (to 620.6 billion rubles), especially gas taxes which fell 48%. Lower global oil prices (Brent averaged $69/barrel, down 12.7% year-on-year) also contributed.
- What other factors contributed to the revenue decline, and how significant were they?
- A 9% appreciation of the ruble against the dollar, sanctions impacting logistics, discounted Asian sales, reduced gas exports, and a shift towards the domestic market due to a gasoline export ban all played a role, further reducing revenue.
- What are the implications of this revenue decline for the Russian federal budget and what is the outlook for the remainder of the year?
- The decline, exceeding June and July's 15-18% drops, significantly increases the risk of a larger budget deficit. The deficit may reach at least 5 trillion rubles (2.2-2.3% of GDP) by year's end, potentially rising to 5.5-6 trillion rubles (2.5% of GDP) depending on future events. The government will need to rely more heavily on the National Wealth Fund, domestic borrowing, and increased non-oil and gas revenue.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The article presents a balanced view of the situation, presenting both the causes of the decline in oil and gas revenues and the potential consequences for the federal budget. However, the framing emphasizes the negative aspects and potential risks, which might unintentionally create a sense of alarm.
Language Bias
The language used is largely neutral and factual, using precise figures and avoiding loaded terms. The tone is informative rather than sensationalist.
Bias by Omission
While the article covers key factors, it could benefit from including alternative perspectives on the potential solutions or the long-term impact on the economy. The focus is primarily on the negative consequences, with less attention paid to potential mitigating factors or positive economic developments.
Sustainable Development Goals
The significant decrease in oil and gas revenues negatively impacts the federal budget, potentially leading to increased budget deficit and reduced government spending on social programs aimed at poverty reduction. Increased internal borrowing and higher taxes on businesses and consumption may also disproportionately affect low-income populations.