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Russia's Uncertain Future in Syria: Warship Withdrawal After Aleppo and Hama Falls
Following the fall of Aleppo and Hama, all Russian warships in Tartus port unexpectedly left, raising concerns about Russia's future military presence in Syria, a critical hub for its operations in the Middle East and Africa, especially after billions of dollars invested in the base.
- How might the potential loss of Hmeimim and Tartus impact Russia's military operations in the Middle East and Africa?
- The withdrawal of Russian warships from Tartus signals a potential major setback for Russia's military presence in the Eastern Mediterranean. The loss of the Hmeimim airbase and Tartus naval base, built with billions of dollars in investment, could severely compromise Russia's military operations in the region, impacting its influence in the Middle East and Africa. This is particularly significant as the bases served as crucial logistical hubs for Wagner mercenaries operating in Africa.
- What are the long-term implications of the Syrian regime's collapse for Russia's geopolitical strategy and its access to warm-water ports?
- The future of Russia's military presence in Syria is highly uncertain. While Moscow claims to be in contact with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the new controlling force, securing continued access to the bases is far from guaranteed. The potential loss of these bases could force Russia to significantly curtail its naval operations in the Eastern Mediterranean, potentially leading to a reassessment of its global military strategy and partnerships, particularly in Africa where supply lines for Wagner mercenaries could be jeopardized.
- What is the significance of the unexpected departure of Russian warships from Tartus port in the context of the recent fall of Aleppo and Hama?
- Following the fall of Aleppo and Hama in early December 2023, all Russian warships stationed at Tartus port, including three frigates and a Kilo-class submarine, unexpectedly departed, ostensibly for "exercises." Their return is uncertain, given the Assad regime's collapse and the subsequent destruction of Hafez al-Assad's statue in Tartus by crowds. This demonstrates a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of Syria and the vulnerability of Russian military assets.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The narrative frames the situation primarily through the lens of potential losses and setbacks for Russia. While acknowledging the potential impact on Russia's military and geopolitical standing is valid, the framing could be improved by placing more emphasis on the human impact of the conflict within Syria and on the broader consequences for regional stability.
Language Bias
The article uses terms like "sanguinary regime" and "impitoyable campagnes de bombardement," which are emotionally charged and lack neutrality. While these terms reflect the gravity of the situation, using more neutral language would be preferable for objectivity. For instance, instead of "sanguinary regime", the phrase "authoritarian regime" could be used, and "extensive bombing campaigns" could replace "impitoyable campagnes de bombardement."
Bias by Omission
The article focuses heavily on the potential consequences for Russia and largely omits the perspectives and experiences of the Syrian people affected by the conflict. The human cost of the war, beyond the mentioned 500,000 deaths, is not extensively explored. The perspectives of various Syrian factions beyond Hayat Tahrir al-Sham are also largely absent. While acknowledging space constraints is important, the significant omission of Syrian voices weakens the overall analysis.
False Dichotomy
The article presents a somewhat simplified eitheor scenario regarding Russia's options: either negotiate with HTS or completely withdraw. It doesn't fully explore the potential for other diplomatic solutions or strategies, such as engaging with other Syrian factions or international actors.
Gender Bias
The article lacks specific details about gender representation among the Syrian population or within the various factions mentioned. A more balanced perspective would include information about the experiences and roles of women in the conflict. No overt gender bias is present in the language used, but greater attention to gender would strengthen the analysis.
Sustainable Development Goals
The article describes the potential collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, which could lead to instability and further violence. The withdrawal of Russian troops from their bases in Syria also introduces uncertainty about the future of the region and the potential for increased conflict. The actions of the Russian military, including bombing civilian areas, further undermine peace and stability.