forbes.com
Seagate Projects Mid-Teens Revenue Growth with HAMR HDD Transition
Seagate CEO David Mosley announced at the company's Analyst Day on May 23 that Seagate shipped 550EB of HDD storage in the 12 months ending March 28, 2025, and expects to transition to HAMR drives, projecting mid-teens revenue growth and over $4B in free cash flow by leveraging technological advancements to maintain its market dominance in data center storage.
- How will Seagate's transition to HAMR technology affect its production costs, product offerings, and customer relationships?
- Seagate's transition to HAMR HDDs will reduce unit costs by 10-15%, enabling them to consolidate HDD platforms and increase revenue. This aligns with projections of 20% CAGR exabyte storage growth and data center storage revenue increasing from $13B in 2024 to $23B in 2028. Over 1M Mozaic HDDs have shipped, and the company anticipates all CSPs will qualify HAMR HDDs within 12 months.
- What is Seagate's near-term strategy for maintaining its market dominance in data center storage, and what are the projected financial impacts?
- Seagate shipped 550EB of HDD storage in the year ending March 28, 2025, and projects mid-teens revenue growth with a 10% gross margin expansion and over $4B in free cash flow. The company is transitioning to HAMR technology, with 4TB Mozaic HDDs already sampled to data center customers and projected to account for over 50% of exabyte shipments by the second half of 2026.
- What are the key technological challenges and innovations needed for Seagate to achieve its long-term goal of 100+TB HDDs, and what are the potential market implications of this success?
- Seagate's technological roadmap points towards 100+TB HDDs in the near future, driven by advancements like vertical laser integration. This will involve multilayer recording and media patterning combined with HAMR to exceed 15TB/disk. This strategy is predicated on maintaining HDDs' cost advantage over SSDs for mass storage in data centers, where HDDs currently account for 87% of storage.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The narrative is overwhelmingly positive, focusing on Seagate's technological advancements, market projections, and financial success. Headlines or introductory statements could have provided a more balanced perspective by acknowledging challenges or risks in the HDD market. The emphasis is on Seagate's success story, without adequately contextualizing this within the broader industry landscape.
Language Bias
The language used is largely neutral, focusing on technical specifications and financial projections. However, phrases like "continued 20% cumulative annual growth rate" and "mid-teens revenue growth" could be perceived as overly optimistic or promotional. More cautious language might enhance neutrality. For instance, instead of "Seagate expects that there will be a continued 20% cumulative annual growth rate exabyte storage growth", one could write "Seagate projects a 20% cumulative annual growth rate in exabyte storage growth, although this projection is subject to market fluctuations.
Bias by Omission
The analysis focuses heavily on Seagate's announcements and projections, potentially omitting perspectives from competitors or independent market analysts. While acknowledging the limitations of space and the audience (analysts), a broader market context would strengthen the analysis. For example, mentioning the market share of other HDD manufacturers or the potential impact of emerging storage technologies (beyond SSDs) would provide a more balanced view.
False Dichotomy
The presentation frames HDDs versus SSDs as a simple dichotomy, emphasizing HDDs' cost advantage. This overlooks the potential for hybrid solutions or other storage technologies to emerge and challenge HDD dominance in the future. The analysis should acknowledge the potential evolution of the storage market beyond this binary.
Sustainable Development Goals
Seagate's advancements in HAMR technology, leading to higher-capacity HDDs and increased efficiency in data storage, directly contribute to advancements in infrastructure and innovation within the tech industry. The development of 100+ TB HDDs represents a significant leap in storage capabilities, supporting the growth of data-intensive industries and applications. The company's focus on reducing costs through technological innovation (e.g., vertical laser integration) aligns with sustainable innovation practices.