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Slow French Economic Growth Expected in Q4 2024

France's economic growth is expected to be slow in Q4 2024 due to the post-Olympic effect and overall uncertainty, despite some positive signs in certain sectors.

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French

France

EconomyLabour MarketFranceInflationGrowthUncertainty

Bank Of FranceInseeMichelinAuchanCgt

Marc FerracciSophie Binet

What is the current state of price levels and inflation in France?: Price levels have normalized in October, reaching pre-COVID levels, which suggests that inflation should remain controlled. However, difficulties in recruitment and supply remain in specific sectors such as aeronautics and automobiles.
Which sectors showed positive growth in October, and which ones experienced difficulties?: The decline in economic activity is attributed to the end of the Olympic Games, which negatively impacted the GDP. Despite some positive progress in certain sectors like aeronautics and agri-food, overall activity remains sluggish.
What are some of the other factors contributing to the uncertain economic outlook in France?: The government's plan to reduce subsidies for the "MaPrimeRénov'" program, along with potential job losses in industries like Michelin and Auchan, and ongoing strikes, all add to the uncertain economic outlook for France.
How is uncertainty affecting the French economy, and what factors are contributing to this uncertainty?: Uncertainty regarding national economic and fiscal policies, as well as geopolitical instability, are causing businesses to postpone investment projects, contributing to the slow economic growth. The reduced visibility also affects the building sector with the "MaPrimeRénov'" scheme undergoing changes.
What is the main reason for the expected slow economic growth in France during the fourth quarter of 2024?: The French economy is expected to see little growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, mainly due to the post-Olympic Games effect, which is estimated to decrease the GDP by 0.2 points. This is according to a monthly economic survey conducted by the Bank of France.

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