bbc.com
Slowest Global Growth in Six Years Forecast Amid US Tariff Fears
The World Bank forecasts 2.7% global economic growth in 2025, the slowest in six years, primarily due to US trade tariffs that could reduce growth further if retaliated against, hindering improvements in living standards.
- What is the World Bank's forecast for global economic growth in 2025, and what are the primary factors contributing to this prediction?
- The World Bank forecasts 2.7% global economic growth in 2025, the weakest in six years excluding the Covid-19 pandemic. This slow growth is insufficient to improve living standards globally, impacting both richer and poorer nations. Trade tariffs, particularly those threatened by the US, are a significant contributing factor.
- How might the threatened US tariffs specifically impact global economic growth, and what are the potential consequences of retaliatory measures?
- Escalating trade tensions, especially US tariffs on imports, pose a major threat to global economic growth. A 10% tariff increase by the US could reduce global growth by 0.2% without retaliation, with a more severe impact if other countries retaliate. This is concerning given the importance of economic growth for poverty reduction and public services.
- What long-term implications does the projected slow growth rate have for global living standards, and what policy approaches are different countries considering to address this challenge?
- The projected slow economic growth will likely hinder improvements in living standards, contrasting with the above 3% annual growth seen in the decade before the pandemic. The lack of a simple solution necessitates a careful consideration of policy options by individual countries, with various approaches being explored globally.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The headline and introduction immediately establish a negative tone by focusing on the "worst global growth in six years." The emphasis is consistently on the negative consequences of tariffs, presenting them as the primary driver of the slowdown. This framing, while supported by the World Bank's statement, might overshadow other potential contributors to the economic situation. The use of quotes emphasizing the negative impacts further reinforces this framing.
Language Bias
The language used is generally neutral, using terms like "slowest pace" and "weakest performance." However, phrases like "fears of US tariffs hitting trade" and "adverse consequences" subtly convey a negative outlook. The use of the word "warned" repeatedly emphasizes the severity of the situation. While not overtly loaded, this choice of words could subtly influence the reader's perception.
Bias by Omission
The article focuses heavily on the potential negative impacts of tariffs on global growth, but omits discussion of potential benefits or counterarguments. It doesn't explore alternative economic policies or perspectives on how to stimulate growth besides those mentioned briefly at the end. The article also doesn't delve into the complexities of international trade and the various factors beyond tariffs influencing global economic growth. Omission of these perspectives might lead to a skewed understanding of the issue.
False Dichotomy
The article presents a somewhat simplified view of the economic situation, implying a direct correlation between tariffs and slow growth without fully exploring the numerous other contributing factors. While tariffs are a significant concern, the narrative simplifies the problem into a single cause-and-effect relationship, neglecting the multifaceted nature of global economics.
Gender Bias
The article primarily features male voices—the World Bank's deputy chief economist and President-elect Trump. While not inherently biased, the lack of diverse voices could contribute to an incomplete picture, particularly if different perspectives from women in economics or international relations were omitted.
Sustainable Development Goals
Slow economic growth negatively impacts poverty reduction efforts as it hinders job creation, limits access to essential services like healthcare and education, and restricts opportunities for economic advancement. The article highlights that economic growth is fundamental to poverty reduction.