forbes.com
Solar Superflares: New Research Suggests Higher Risk to Global Infrastructure
A new study analyzing 56,000 sun-like stars estimates a powerful solar superflare could strike Earth roughly once a century, potentially causing significant damage to global infrastructure based on Kepler space telescope data and historical records.
- What is the probability of a century-scale solar superflare impacting Earth, and what are the potential consequences for global infrastructure?
- New research suggests a higher probability of powerful solar superflares impacting Earth. A study of 56,000 sun-like stars indicates that our sun could produce such superflares about once per century, potentially causing widespread damage to power grids and satellites. This is based on observations of 2,889 superflares on 2,527 stars.
- How does the new research, using Kepler telescope data, compare to previous studies on extreme solar storms and their frequency, and what methods were used?
- The findings connect to previous research identifying six extreme solar storms in the last 14,500 years, with the most recent before 664 B.C. The current study uses data from the Kepler space telescope analyzing the brightness of sun-like stars to estimate the frequency of superflares. This data suggests a higher frequency than previously believed.
- What specific steps can be taken to improve our ability to predict and mitigate the damage from future solar superflares, given the potential scale of disruption?
- The potential for future superflares highlights the vulnerability of modern infrastructure. The Carrington Event of 1859, an X45 solar flare, caused auroras at the equator; a similar event today could cause catastrophic damage to global power grids and communication systems. This necessitates further research into predicting and mitigating such events.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The article uses alarming language such as "alarming study" and "cataclysmic" to frame the research findings. The headline and introduction emphasize the potential for widespread disruption. This framing prioritizes the negative aspects of superflares, potentially exaggerating the risk to the reader.
Language Bias
The article employs several terms that contribute to a negative and alarming tone. Examples include "massive solar flare," "bringing down power grids and satellites," "powerful superflares," and "cataclysmic." More neutral alternatives might be "significant solar event," "disrupting power grids and satellites," "intense solar flares," and "potentially disruptive." The repeated use of "superflare" and emphasis on the negative potential exacerbates the alarming tone.
Bias by Omission
The article focuses heavily on the potential negative impacts of superflares, mentioning power grid and satellite disruptions. However, it omits discussion of potential benefits or mitigation strategies. While acknowledging limitations of space, a brief mention of research into protecting infrastructure or the potential for early warning systems would have provided a more balanced perspective.
False Dichotomy
The article presents a somewhat false dichotomy by focusing primarily on the potential for catastrophic consequences of superflares, without adequately exploring the likelihood of less severe events or the possibility of the sun not behaving like other sun-like stars. It emphasizes the potential for a catastrophic event without sufficiently acknowledging the uncertainty involved.
Sustainable Development Goals
The article highlights the potential for massive solar flares to damage power grids and satellites, which are crucial components of modern infrastructure. Disruption to these systems would negatively impact various sectors, hindering industrial processes, communication networks, and economic activities. The potential for such damage demonstrates a risk to the sustainable development of infrastructure.