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Stock Market Predicts Harris Victory in 2024
A stock market indicator suggests a Kamala Harris victory in 2024, based on historical trends and recent market performance. However, the model's limited sample size raises questions about its reliability.
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United States
PoliticsEconomyUs PoliticsElectionStock MarketPrediction
Cfra ResearchCbs MoneywatchCbs News
Kamala HarrisDonald TrumpJoe BidenDwight EisenhowerAdlai StevensonSam Stovall
- What is the basis of Sam Stovall's election prediction model?
- Sam Stovall's election predictor uses stock market performance between July 31 and October 31 to forecast presidential elections. The model suggests that if the market rises during this period, the incumbent party tends to retain power.
- What are the limitations of Stovall's model, and how does he address them?
- The model's accuracy is debated; while it has shown a strong correlation in the past, its small sample size (21 elections) raises questions about its statistical significance. Stovall himself acknowledges this limitation.
- What is Stovall's overall conclusion about the 2024 election and his confidence in his model?
- Stovall, despite acknowledging the model's limitations, maintains his belief in the predictive power of history and the rules-based approach. He stands by his prediction of a Harris victory.
- What is the historical accuracy of the model when the stock market falls in the given period?
- Historically, when the stock market falls between July 31 and October 31, the incumbent party has lost the election about 89% of the time. This predictor, however, had one failure in 1956 when Dwight Eisenhower was re-elected despite a market decline.
- What does the 2024 stock market performance suggest about the upcoming election according to Stovall's model?
- In 2024, the S&P 500 rose 3.3% between July 31 and October 31, which, according to Stovall's model, suggests a victory for Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democratic party.