es.euronews.com
Study Finds Atlantic Current Collapse Unlikely This Century
A new study using 34 climate models suggests a complete collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is unlikely this century, although a significant weakening is probable, leading to considerable climate impacts but not a European ice age.
- How does this study's methodology and focus differ from previous research on AMOC collapse, and what accounts for the differing conclusions?
- The study's findings contrast with previous predictions of imminent AMOC collapse. The researchers found that even under extreme climate change scenarios, a secondary current in the Antarctic Ocean would likely maintain the AMOC, albeit weakened, until 2100. This contrasts with studies focusing solely on the North Atlantic.
- What are the potential long-term consequences of a weakened, but not completely collapsed, AMOC, and how might these impacts vary geographically?
- The study highlights the importance of considering multiple factors influencing ocean currents. Focusing on deep-water upwelling in the Antarctic, rather than solely on North Atlantic sinking, provides a more nuanced understanding. While a weakened AMOC will cause significant climate disruptions like crop failures and altered fish populations, a complete shutdown seems less imminent than previously thought.
- What are the key findings of the new study regarding the likelihood of a complete collapse of the AMOC this century, and what are the immediate implications?
- A new study using 34 climate models suggests a complete collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is unlikely this century. While a weakening is probable, leading to significant climate impacts, the study offers a more optimistic outlook than some previous research.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The headline and introductory paragraph emphasize the improbable nature of a complete AMOC collapse this century. This framing, while factually supported by the study, prioritizes the reassuring aspect of the findings and may downplay the potential severity of a significant weakening. The article structures the information to lead with the positive findings before addressing potential negative consequences.
Language Bias
The article uses language that leans towards a more reassuring tone. Words and phrases such as "tranquilizing", "not a green light for complacency", and "should result in reassuring news" shape the reader's interpretation. While these are not inherently biased, they subtly frame the findings in a more positive light than might be warranted. Consider replacing such phrasing with more neutral descriptions of the findings.
Bias by Omission
The article focuses heavily on the reassuring findings of Baker's study, potentially downplaying or omitting studies that predict a more severe outcome or express higher levels of concern. While acknowledging some previous studies predicting a complete shutdown, it doesn't delve into the specifics or methodologies of those studies, limiting a complete comparison.
False Dichotomy
The article presents a false dichotomy by framing the debate as either a complete collapse of the AMOC or no significant consequences. It overlooks the possibility of a significant weakening of the current, which, while not a complete collapse, could still have serious climate repercussions. The use of terms like "tranquilizing" and "not a green light for complacency" reinforces this simplification.
Sustainable Development Goals
The study offers a more optimistic outlook on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse, suggesting it is unlikely this century. While acknowledging AMOC weakening and its significant climate repercussions, the findings mitigate concerns of a catastrophic collapse and its associated extreme consequences, such as drastic European cooling and global rainfall disruptions. This contributes positively to climate action by reducing the perceived imminence of a severe climate tipping point.