theglobeandmail.com
Toronto Condo Starts Far Below Official Figures
Toronto condo starts in the first half of 2024 were far lower than CMHC reported: CMHC reported 6,106 starts; Urbanation and Zonda reported 1,950 and 2,300 respectively, due to different construction start definitions. This discrepancy reveals a significant lag in government data, masking the severity of the downturn.
- How do the differing methodologies used by CMHC and private industry groups impact the understanding and response to the housing market slowdown?
- The discrepancy between CMHC and industry data highlights a significant lag in government reporting on housing starts. CMHC's methodology, which counts starts after foundation pouring, underreports the market downturn's severity. In contrast, Urbanation and Zonda, counting starts at excavation, reflect a sharper decline, beginning in the second half of 2023, earlier than CMHC data suggest. This lag hampers timely policy responses.
- What are the potential consequences of relying on potentially lagging government data to assess the health of the housing market and inform policy decisions?
- The differing methodologies used by CMHC and industry groups to measure housing starts affect policy decisions. The lag in CMHC data masks the true extent of the slowdown and may delay appropriate policy interventions. As preconstruction sales have virtually vanished and projects are being canceled, a more current, accurate measure is crucial for effective policy-making and investment decisions within the housing sector. This is especially relevant considering the impact on housing affordability and the wider economic effects.
- What is the actual extent of the decline in Toronto condo starts during the first half of 2024, and why is there a discrepancy between government and industry data?
- The number of condo starts in Toronto during the first half of 2024 was drastically lower than reported by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC). CMHC data showed 6,106 starts, while Urbanation and Zonda, industry research groups, reported 1,950 and 2,300, respectively, representing a 58-65 percent decline. This discrepancy stems from differing methodologies in defining the commencement of construction.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The article frames the discrepancy in housing start data as a significant issue, presenting the industry group data as a more accurate reflection of the current market downturn. The headline emphasizes the greater decline shown by industry data compared to government reports. By giving greater prominence to the industry's figures, the article potentially leads readers to perceive a more severe housing slowdown than the government data alone might suggest. The use of quotes from industry representatives further supports this framing.
Language Bias
The article uses relatively neutral language. Terms like "grimmer picture" and "precipitously" are descriptive but not overtly loaded. However, the repeated emphasis on the industry data's depiction of a "more severe" downturn subtly influences the reader's perception. While the article presents both sides of the story, the framing tends to favor the industry perspective.
Bias by Omission
The article presents a clear discrepancy between CMHC data and industry data on housing starts, highlighting the potential for bias by omission. The article does mention that CMHC's methodology differs from industry groups because it measures starts at a later stage, focusing on concrete pouring for foundations. However, it doesn't explore potential reasons why CMHC might choose this methodology beyond ensuring consistency across the country. Further investigation into the rationale behind CMHC's approach and potential limitations could provide a more comprehensive picture. The article also does not fully explore the potential implications of this discrepancy for housing policy decisions based on lagging data.
Sustainable Development Goals
The significant decline in new home construction in Toronto, as evidenced by the discrepancy between CMHC and industry group data, directly impacts the availability of affordable and sustainable housing, hindering progress towards Sustainable Cities and Communities. The article highlights a severe downturn in condo starts, indicating a potential housing shortage and impacting the goal of providing adequate and sustainable urban housing.