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Trader's $50M Election Bet
An anonymous trader earns $50 million by betting on Trump's victory in the US Presidential election using a unique polling method.
German
Germany
Us PoliticsGermany ElectionStrategyPredictionPollsBetting
Wall Street JournalColumbia UniversityFivethirtyeightWashington PostYougov
ThéoDonald TrumpKamala HarrisAndrew GelmanJames Johnson
- What are some criticisms of Théo's method and prediction?
- Critics, including a Columbia University professor, attribute some of Théo's success to luck, while acknowledging that his unconventional polling method identified a bias in traditional surveys.
- Has the method of polling neighbors shown to be consistently reliable?
- While the "neighborhood poll" method has been suggested before to address biases in traditional polling, a 2022 test showed inconsistent results, sometimes overestimating Republican support.
- Why might traditional polls have been inaccurate in predicting the outcome?
- Traditional polls, often conducted online, may overrepresent certain demographics (younger people, those working from home) who tend to lean Democratic, while underrepresenting older demographics that are more likely to be Republican, skewing results.
- What is the "Shy Trump voter effect" and how did Théo use it to make his prediction?
- Théo's strategy involved using "neighborhood polls," where he asked people about their neighbors' voting intentions, believing traditional polls underestimated Trump's support due to the "Shy Trump voter effect."
- Who is Théo and what was his strategy for predicting the outcome of the US Presidential Election?
- An anonymous trader, known as "Théo," made nearly $50 million by betting against the polls in the 2024 US Presidential election, correctly predicting a Donald Trump victory.