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Tropical Storm Threatens Caribbean, Mexico

A new tropical system is developing in the western Caribbean and is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm, impacting Central America and potentially Mexico.

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United States

Climate ChangeClimateWeatherHurricaneForecastTropical Storm

National Hurricane CenterUniversity Of GeorgiaAmerican Meteorological SocietyWoodwell Climate Research CenterNoaa

Marshall ShepherdJennifer FrancisMax GolemboMel Griffin

What is the projected path of the storm in the coming days?: The storm's projected path involves meandering in the western Caribbean over the weekend, then potentially moving towards the Yucatán Peninsula by Monday, possibly making landfall near Belize.
What is the uncertainty surrounding the storm's future trajectory?: While it's too early to definitively predict its trajectory after impacting the Yucatán Peninsula, some models suggest it may enter the Gulf of Mexico. The interaction with land could weaken the system significantly.
What is the current status of the tropical system in the western Caribbean?: A new tropical system is developing in the western Caribbean and is expected to become Tropical Storm Sara within 24 hours, bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to parts of Central America and potentially impacting Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula.
What factors contribute to the possibility of tropical systems forming late in the season?: Warm ocean temperatures increase the likelihood of tropical cyclones forming late in the season, even outside the official June 1-November 30 period. The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is usually September 10, but this year's activity peaked later.
How does this storm compare to the overall activity of the Atlantic hurricane season this year?: The Atlantic hurricane season has been above average this year, with several high-impact storms including Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Late-season tropical systems are not unprecedented, although they tend to develop in the western Atlantic.

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