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Trump and US-Canada Oil Trade
Analysis of the potential impact of a Trump administration on US-Canada oil trade, considering economic factors, political influences, and energy industry dynamics.
English
Canada
PoliticsInternational RelationsUs PoliticsClimate ChangeEnergy SecurityTradeEnergyEconomics
Rystad EnergyS&P Global Commodity InsightsNinepoint Partners LpCalgary Chamber Of CommerceTesla
Donald TrumpJoe BidenKevin BirnEric NuttallDeborah YedlinElon Musk
- What is the significance of the US's consumption of Canadian oil?
- The US's high consumption of Canadian oil, especially heavy sour crude, which is less expensive and easily processed by US refineries, makes it unlikely that this trade will be heavily targeted.
- What factors affect the likelihood of a significant increase in US oil production?
- While Trump aims to increase US oil production, declining reserves in shale fields make a sudden surge unlikely, and the nature of energy work, which cannot be offshored, favors protectionist policies that prioritize domestic production and employment.
- Why might oil be treated differently than other imports under a Trump administration?
- Despite promising across-the-board tariffs, Trump's administration might treat oil differently due to its importance to US consumers and the strong economic ties between US and Canadian energy sectors.
- How do the economic ties between Calgary and Houston influence the outlook for oil trade?
- The strong economic relationship between Calgary and Houston demonstrates the north-south flow of energy, making trade restrictions less likely, and the support of energy CEOs in Trump's administration favors continuous oil flow.
- What is the significance of the Keystone XL pipeline in the context of US-Canada energy relations?
- Although the Keystone XL pipeline's future is uncertain, Canada's reliance on the US for oil exports and the US's dependence on Canadian oil make a complete disruption to the trade unlikely in the near future.