Trump Presidency: 75% of German Firms Fear Negative Economic Impact

Trump Presidency: 75% of German Firms Fear Negative Economic Impact

zeit.de

Trump Presidency: 75% of German Firms Fear Negative Economic Impact

A ZEW survey of 850 German companies in December 2016 shows that 75% anticipate negative economic consequences from Trump's presidency, with those exporting to the US expressing significantly more concern. The survey predates Trump's January 20 inauguration.

German
Germany
PoliticsEconomyEconomic ImpactGerman EconomyTrump PresidencyUs-German RelationsZew Survey
ZewDpa-Infocom
Donald TrumpDaniel Erdsiek
How does the level of concern vary between sectors and those with versus without US export activity?
The survey highlights a correlation between US exports and pessimism: 55% of German manufacturing firms exporting to the US expect negative impacts on their success, compared to 34% of non-exporting firms. This suggests that the impact will be disproportionately felt by businesses directly involved in US trade.
What is the immediate economic impact predicted by German businesses regarding the Trump presidency?
A ZEW survey reveals that 75% of German industrial and IT firms anticipate negative economic consequences from Trump's presidency, with 15% expecting severely negative impacts. Only 7% foresee positive effects.
What are the potential long-term consequences of the Trump presidency on the German economy, considering the survey's pre-inauguration data?
The ZEW survey's findings, collected before Trump's inauguration, foreshadow potential challenges for German businesses, particularly those reliant on US trade. Future analyses will need to account for post-inauguration policy changes to fully gauge the long-term effects.

Cognitive Concepts

3/5

Framing Bias

The headline and introduction immediately highlight the concerns of German businesses about negative economic consequences. This framing sets a negative tone and might predispose the reader to focus on pessimistic projections. The sequencing of information, starting with the negative predictions and then offering the positive expectations as a minor detail, reinforces this bias.

1/5

Language Bias

The language used is largely neutral, although terms like "befürchten" (fear) and "pessimistisch" (pessimistic) might subtly skew the reader's perception towards negativity. More neutral alternatives such as "anticipate" or "expect" could be used to achieve a more balanced tone.

3/5

Bias by Omission

The article focuses primarily on the negative economic consequences predicted by German businesses. While it mentions that only 7% expect positive effects, it omits exploring the reasons behind this optimism or the potential positive impacts of a Trump presidency. The lack of diverse viewpoints limits a comprehensive understanding.

2/5

False Dichotomy

The article presents a somewhat false dichotomy by heavily emphasizing the negative predictions while only briefly mentioning the positive expectations. This could leave the reader with an overly pessimistic impression of the overall economic outlook.

Sustainable Development Goals

Decent Work and Economic Growth Negative
Direct Relevance

The survey shows that a significant portion of German companies anticipate negative economic consequences from the Trump presidency, impacting job security and economic growth. The impact is particularly pronounced in manufacturing and export-oriented sectors.