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Trump's Impact on China's Economy

Analysis of the economic implications of Donald Trump's election victory on China's economy, focusing on trade, currency, and economic vulnerabilities.

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International RelationsChinaEconomic GrowthEconomic PolicyInternational TradeGlobal TradePolitical Risk

NatixisBloomberg

Donald TrumpAlithia Garcia-Herrero

What are the global implications of Donald Trump's return to power?: Donald Trump's return to the global political scene after winning the US presidential election has wide-ranging impacts globally, particularly on China's economy.
How is China responding to the potential economic risks posed by Trump's policies?: China is expected to implement fiscal stimulus measures to lower borrowing costs and counter the potential negative effects of high US tariffs on its exports.
What was the performance of China's exports in the period leading up to the US elections?: China's exports surged in October 2024, exceeding analyst estimates, driven by pre-emptive sales in anticipation of Trump's potential tariffs and Christmas demand.
What measures has China's central bank taken to mitigate the impact of potential US tariffs?: To counteract the potential impact of US tariffs, China's central bank devalued the yuan, and state-owned banks intervened in the foreign exchange market to support the currency.
What are the underlying vulnerabilities in China's economy that could exacerbate the impact of Trump's policies?: China's economy, characterized by low wages, high youth unemployment, and a weak social safety net, is vulnerable to external shocks like high US tariffs; household spending is significantly below the global average.

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