french.china.org.cn
Trump's Return and the BRICS+ Challenge to Dollar Dominance
Par Mohamad Zreik, a researcher at Sun Yat-sen University, analyzes the potential geopolitical and economic shifts under a Trump presidency, focusing on the BRICS+ group's challenge to the US dollar's dominance and the US administration's response, including threatened 100% tariffs on BRICS+ imports.
- How do the economic disparities within the BRICS+ nations affect their ability to create a unified alternative currency to the dollar?
- China's advocacy for free and convenient global trade, alongside the development of alternative financial institutions like the New Development Bank (NDB) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), is laying the groundwork for a competing financial system. However, significant economic disparities within BRICS+, ranging from China's export boom to Brazil's raw material-based industries, pose challenges to creating a unified currency. This highlights the complex interplay between geopolitical and economic factors shaping the future of global finance.
- What are the long-term implications of the US's aggressive stance against BRICS+'s de-dollarization efforts on the global financial landscape?
- While the BRICS+ aim to lessen vulnerability to US sanctions and financial control mechanisms, the deeply entrenched dominance of the dollar and the internal economic diversity among members present significant hurdles to creating a viable alternative. The US's aggressive approach, though intended to deter de-dollarization, may backfire by accelerating the diversification of global trade currencies, leading to a more fragmented and unpredictable financial order. Alternative solutions like IMF Special Drawing Rights or blockchain-based payment systems may emerge regionally, but a complete global shift away from the dollar is unlikely in the near future.
- What are the immediate consequences of the potential 100% tariffs threatened by the US administration on BRICS+ members pursuing de-dollarization?
- With Donald Trump's potential return to the White House, the BRICS+ group's efforts to reduce dollar dependence through local currency trades and a potential alternative global currency have sparked concerns in Washington. The US administration's threat of 100% tariffs on imports from BRICS+ members if they continue de-dollarization reflects a looming ideological battle in global finance. This is evidenced by the recent shift towards using member currencies in bilateral trade within the BRICS+ group.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The narrative frames the potential actions of a Trump administration as primarily aggressive and detrimental to global stability. While acknowledging the efforts of BRICS+ members to reduce dollar dependence, the emphasis is placed on the negative consequences of a potential trade war and the disruption to global supply chains. This framing may unintentionally overshadow the underlying motivations and economic goals of BRICS+ countries.
Language Bias
The language used is generally neutral but sometimes leans towards portraying the potential actions of the Trump administration in a negative light. Terms like "aggressive," "conflictual," and "combative" are used to describe US policies. While these terms may be descriptive, they could be replaced with more neutral options, such as "assertive," "confrontational," or "competitive." The repeated emphasis on the potential negative consequences for the US also contributes to a biased tone.
Bias by Omission
The analysis focuses heavily on the potential negative impacts of a Trump administration's policies on the global financial system, particularly concerning the dollar's dominance. However, it omits discussion of potential benefits or alternative perspectives on the BRICS+ initiatives and their long-term effects. The analysis also lacks a balanced presentation of the potential downsides of a multi-polar financial system. While acknowledging the challenges of creating a unified BRICS currency, it doesn't fully explore the potential advantages or counterarguments to the concerns raised.
False Dichotomy
The text presents a somewhat simplistic eitheor scenario: either the dollar maintains its dominance, or a BRICS+ alternative will completely replace it. The reality is far more nuanced, with the possibility of a multi-polar system or regional alternatives emerging alongside the dollar. The framing overlooks the potential for cooperation and coexistence between different currency systems.
Sustainable Development Goals
The proposed 100% tariffs on imports from BRICS members would disproportionately affect low-income families in the US, exacerbating income inequality and contradicting Trump's "Make America Great Again" promise. The global economic instability resulting from trade wars and financial fragmentation also negatively impacts inequality on a global scale.