euronews.com
Trump's Tariff Threat and Global Coffee Prices
US President Trump's threat to impose a 25% tariff on Colombian imports, including coffee, has driven up Arabica coffee futures by 15.14% in the last month to \$3.69 per pound, amid diplomatic tensions and poor harvests in major producing countries.
- What is the immediate impact of President Trump's tariff threat on the global coffee market?
- President Trump's threat of a 25% tariff on Colombian imports, including coffee, caused a 6.55% jump in Arabica coffee futures last week and a 15.14% increase over the last month, reaching \$3.69 per pound. This followed Colombia's initial refusal, later reversed, to accept US deportation flights.
- How do supply issues in Brazil and other coffee-producing countries contribute to the current price surge?
- The US imports 20% of its coffee from Colombia, its second-largest supplier after Brazil (32%). Trump's tariff threat, stemming from a diplomatic disagreement, significantly impacts coffee prices due to this dependence and the resulting supply uncertainty. Brazil's poor harvests, contributing to a 90.21% year-on-year increase in Arabica futures prices, further exacerbate the situation.
- What are the long-term implications of climate change and geopolitical instability for global coffee prices?
- Future coffee prices depend on several factors. Resolving US-Colombia diplomatic tensions would reduce market uncertainty and potentially lower prices. However, continued poor harvests in Brazil and other producing regions, combined with climate change impacts causing extreme weather, suggest prices will remain elevated for the foreseeable future. India's forecast of a 10% reduction in coffee exports in 2025 worsens the supply outlook.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The article frames the narrative around the impact on coffee prices and global supply, emphasizing the potential negative economic consequences for both the US and global coffee consumers. While acknowledging Colombia's potential economic vulnerability, the article does not explicitly present a counter-narrative or significantly highlight any potential benefits or alternative outcomes from the trade dispute.
Language Bias
The language used is generally neutral and objective, using descriptive terms like "threatened", "escalating tensions", and "surged". However, the phrasing of Trump's actions as "threats" could be interpreted as slightly loaded, suggesting an aggressive posture. A more neutral alternative could be 'announced plans to impose'.
Bias by Omission
The article focuses heavily on the impact of potential US tariffs on coffee prices and the global coffee market, but gives less attention to other potential consequences of a trade war between the US and Colombia. It mentions other Colombian exports that could be affected (crude oil and cut flowers), but doesn't delve into the potential economic repercussions for either country beyond the coffee market. Further, the article does not explore potential political ramifications of the trade dispute. The article also lacks perspectives from Colombian businesses or citizens directly affected by the tariff threats.
False Dichotomy
The article presents a somewhat simplistic view of the situation by focusing primarily on the conflict between Trump and Petro regarding migrant deportations as the sole cause of the tariff threats. While this event is mentioned as a trigger, it omits any discussion of other underlying political or economic factors that could be contributing to the strained relationship between the two countries.
Sustainable Development Goals
The threat of US tariffs on Colombian coffee imports negatively impacts food security, particularly in the US where Colombia is a major coffee supplier. Higher coffee prices due to trade disputes and poor harvests reduce affordability and access to this staple food for consumers. This disruption in coffee supply chains affects food security and availability, particularly for vulnerable populations.