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Trump's Trade War 2.0: Impact on China
Analysis of potential economic impact of a second Trump term on US-China trade relations.
Greek
Greece
PoliticsInternational RelationsUs PoliticsChinaTradeGlobal EconomyEconomics
Cornell UniversityInternational Monetary Fund (Imf)Ts LombardCenter For Strategic And International StudiesMacquarie
Donald TrumpEswar PrasadScott KennedyLarry Hu
- How has China prepared for potential trade conflicts with the US?
- While the power balance may seem to favor the US, China has diversified its markets and invested in domestic industries, particularly in clean energy technologies, reducing its reliance on the American market.
- What are China's options for retaliating against potential US tariffs?
- China's reduced reliance on US markets, coupled with its growth in sectors like clean energy, allows it to withstand potential tariff impacts. It can also retaliate by restricting exports of strategically important materials.
- What insights do experts provide about the future of US-China trade relations?
- Experts like Eswar Prasad and Scott Kennedy offer insights into the changing dynamics of US-China relations and the potential consequences of escalating trade tensions. The outcome will depend on the extent to which Trump follows through on his aggressive trade policies.
- What are Trump's plans regarding trade with China if elected for a second term?
- Trump's potential second term promises increased trade aggression towards China, imposing 60% tariffs on all imports. This action targets a China already weakened by economic challenges, potentially escalating trade tensions.
- What is the projected impact on China's economy if Trump imposes the 60% tariffs?
- The impact of Trump's proposed tariffs could significantly harm the Chinese economy, potentially decreasing exports by 8% and slowing growth by two percentage points, according to Macquarie economist Larry Hu. Circumventing tariffs through third-party countries could mitigate the impact but not fully eliminate it.