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Trump's Win and China's Economic Response
Analysis of the impact of Trump's 2024 election win on China's fiscal stimulus plans and US-China trade relations.
English
United States
PoliticsUs PoliticsChinaTradeInternational TradeTariffsEconomicsStimulus
National People's CongressCitigroupEconomist Intelligence UnitWisdomtreePinpoint Asset Management
Donald TrumpZhu BaoliangYue SuLiqian RenZhiwei Zhang
- What is the current state of trade between the U.S. and China?
- The U.S. trade deficit with China has narrowed since 2016, although exports from China to the U.S. still significantly exceed imports from the U.S. to China. Even with decreased exports, China's exports to the US are significantly higher post-2016.
- What are the potential effects of new tariffs on China's economy?
- While a 60% tariff increase on Chinese goods could reduce exports by $200 billion and significantly impact GDP, some analysts believe China will release stimulus gradually. The impact of tariffs on both economies is substantial.
- How did the stock markets in China and the U.S. react to Trump's victory?
- Mainland and Hong Kong stocks initially fell on Trump's victory, while U.S. stocks surged, showing a market divergence. This divergence suggests China's stimulus plan may be larger than initially predicted.
- What is the anticipated impact of Trump's win on China's economic policy?
- Trump's 2024 win has increased pressure on China to implement fiscal stimulus. Experts anticipate a package exceeding 10 trillion yuan, addressing local government debt and real estate.
- What are the potential implications of a Republican-controlled Congress on US-China trade relations?
- Increased protectionist measures under a Republican-controlled Congress could accelerate negative impacts on the global economy. The potential use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act for imposing tariffs is a key concern.