kathimerini.gr
Turkey's Economic Slowdown Amidst Persistent High Inflation
Turkey's Q3 GDP growth slowed to 1.9% due to high inflation (48.6% in October), despite the central bank's 50% base rate and measures; the IMF lowered its 2025 growth forecast to 2.7%.
- What is the primary driver of Turkey's economic slowdown, and what are the immediate consequences?
- Turkey's annual GDP growth slowed to 1.9% in Q3, down from 2.4% in Q2 and significantly lower than 6.7% in Q1. This slowdown primarily reflects decreased household consumption due to persistently high inflation. Despite the central bank's restrictive monetary policy (50% base rate since March) and various measures, inflation remains stubbornly high.
- How does the Turkish Central Bank's monetary policy impact inflation, and what are the underlying reasons for inflation's persistence?
- Inflation, at 48.6% in October, is proving resistant to the central bank's measures due to rising administratively-set prices (electricity, gas, water) and taxes, along with currency depreciation and high food inflation. These factors contributed to upward revisions in the central bank's inflation forecasts for late 2024 (44%) and late 2025 (21%).
- What are the potential future implications of Turkey's high inflation and the central bank's response for economic growth and consumer spending?
- The central bank's November meeting maintained its approach of taking additional counter-inflationary measures, but not raising the base rate further. However, higher-than-expected inflation in 2025 is expected to dampen growth, as reflected in the IMF's revised growth forecast for Turkey in 2025, reduced to 2.7% from 3.2%.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The framing emphasizes the negative aspects of the Turkish economy, highlighting the slowdown in growth and persistent high inflation. The headline (if there was one) would likely reinforce this negative perspective. The article starts by presenting the decreasing growth rate, setting a negative tone from the beginning.
Language Bias
While the language is generally neutral and factual, the repeated emphasis on negative economic data ("slowdown," "high inflation," "intensified inflationary pressures") creates a consistently pessimistic tone. Phrases like "particularly high inflation" could be rephrased more neutrally as "high inflation".
Bias by Omission
The article focuses heavily on the economic slowdown and inflation in Turkey, but omits any discussion of potential positive economic indicators or government policies aimed at stimulating growth. There is no mention of any successes or positive aspects of the Turkish economy, leading to a potentially unbalanced perspective.
False Dichotomy
The article presents a somewhat simplified view of the economic situation, focusing primarily on the conflict between high inflation and economic growth. While acknowledging some mitigating factors, it does not explore alternative policy options or approaches to managing the situation.