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theguardian.com

UK Unemployment Rises Amidst Signs of Labor Market Cooling

Analysis of UK unemployment figures reveals a slight rise and signs of a cooling labor market, prompting concerns despite historically low unemployment.

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English

United Kingdom

EconomyLabour MarketUkEconomic PolicyLabor MarketUnemploymentJob Growth

Office For National StatisticsHmrcDeutsche BankBank Of England

Rachel ReevesSanjay Raja

What is the current UK unemployment rate?: The UK unemployment rate has risen slightly to 4.3% in the three months to September, up from 4% the previous month. However, data inconsistencies mean this increase should be viewed cautiously.
How has the number of job vacancies changed recently?: The number of job vacancies has decreased by 35,000 in the three months to October, reaching a level only slightly above pre-pandemic numbers. This points towards a softening of the labor market.
What recent policy changes are expected to influence UK employment figures?: Recent announcements by Chancellor Rachel Reeves, including a national minimum wage increase and higher employer national insurance contributions, are expected to impact employment figures, although the full effects won't be known for months.
What are some alternative indicators suggesting a potential slowdown in job growth?: Alternative job growth measures, such as HMRC payroll numbers, show a decline in October and in five of the last seven months, suggesting a cooling labor market.
What are the potential economic implications of the observed changes in the labor market?: While current unemployment remains low by historical standards, economists note a steady loosening in the labor market, potentially making it easier for the Bank of England to cut interest rates but posing challenges for Chancellor Reeves.

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