lemonde.fr
US Policy Shift Risks New Global Economic Instability
The article analyzes the potential for a new global economic instability due to the US's retreat from its role as hegemonic power, drawing parallels to the Great Depression era, and highlighting the risks associated with the absence of a clear successor.
- What are the immediate economic risks associated with the potential decline of the US dollar as the global reserve currency?
- The article discusses the potential for a new 'Kindleberger hiatus' due to the United States' inward turn under Donald Trump's policies. This shift risks undermining the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency, given the lack of a clear successor power like the EU or China. The consequence could be global economic instability, mirroring the Great Depression.
- How did historical precedents, such as the 'Kindleberger hiatus', inform the analysis of the current situation and potential implications?
- Historically, global economic stability has hinged on a hegemonic power providing global public goods, as seen with Britain in the 19th century and the US post-WWII. The current US administration's protectionist policies threaten to disrupt this, creating a vacuum, potentially leading to a period of instability similar to the interwar years.
- What policy adjustments are necessary to mitigate the potential negative impacts of a changing global economic order, particularly in light of a lack of clear leadership?
- The future of the international monetary system is uncertain. The absence of a clear successor to the US as a hegemonic power creates significant risks. The potential for a prolonged period of economic uncertainty and geopolitical instability calls for proactive, cooperative responses from other major economies.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The article frames the potential decline of US hegemony as a looming crisis, emphasizing the negative consequences and drawing parallels to the Great Depression. This framing may unduly alarm readers and overshadow other potential interpretations of the situation.
Language Bias
While the language is generally neutral and factual, the choice of terms like "hiatus de Kindleberger" and "contre-productives" might carry a somewhat negative connotation, subtly influencing the reader's perception of the described events. More neutral terms could be used to ensure objectivity.
Bias by Omission
The article focuses on the potential negative consequences of the US's withdrawal from its role as global hegemon, but omits discussion of potential benefits or alternative viewpoints on the current system. It doesn't explore potential positive effects of a multipolar world or the potential for other nations to successfully fill the void left by the US.
False Dichotomy
The article presents a somewhat simplistic eitheor scenario: either the US continues its role as hegemon, or the world faces economic chaos. It doesn't fully consider the possibility of a gradual shift in global power dynamics or the emergence of a different, potentially more equitable, international system.
Sustainable Development Goals
The article discusses the potential for a global economic instability due to the US withdrawing from its role as global economic leader. This could lead to increased inequality as developing nations are disproportionately affected by economic shocks and lack of access to resources and support.