europe.chinadaily.com.cn
US Tariffs on China Risk Global Trade Collapse
A discussion at the China Institute in America examined the potential long-term effects of US tariffs on China, which are currently around 39 percent on $440 billion in imports, with threats of increases to 60 percent; experts warn this could severely damage global trade and cause a recession.
- What are the immediate economic consequences of President Trump's tariff policy on US-China trade and global economic stability?
- President Trump's tariffs on Chinese imports, currently around 39 percent on $440 billion worth of goods, and threatened increases to 60 percent, risk significantly disrupting global trade relations. Experts predict a near-total cessation of US-China trade at the higher tariff levels, impacting both nations' economies. These tariffs, along with potential reciprocal tariffs on other trading partners, are already causing economic concern.
- What are the long-term implications of the current US tariff policy on global trade patterns and the international economic order?
- The escalating tariff situation presents considerable risk of a self-inflicted recession in the US. While China's share of US imports has decreased (from 21 percent in 2017 to 13 percent in 2024), China's global manufacturing dominance continues to grow. Diversification of supply chains by US and Chinese companies could mitigate, but not eliminate, the negative consequences of these tariffs.
- How do the stated goals of the Trump administration's tariff policy compare to its actual impacts on trade relations with key partners such as Mexico, Canada, and the European Union?
- The Trump administration's stated goal is to boost US manufacturing and jobs through tariffs, but the strategy is multi-faceted, also serving as revenue generation, retribution, and reciprocal pressure. However, this approach raises concerns about compliance with World Trade Organization rules and the potential for global economic downturn.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The article frames the discussion largely around the potential negative consequences of the tariffs, giving significant weight to the concerns expressed by Setser and Allen. The headline (not provided, but inferred from the text) likely emphasizes the potential economic downturn. The frequent use of quotes from Setser highlighting the negative impacts further reinforces this framing. While Allen mentions some potential benefits, the overall emphasis leans heavily towards a negative portrayal of the tariff policy.
Language Bias
The language used tends towards neutral reporting, presenting facts and opinions from different sources. However, phrases like "close to the end of the modern era of globalization" (Setser) and "self-inflicted recession" (Setser) carry strong negative connotations. While accurate reporting, these phrases inject a degree of dramatic emphasis into the piece. Less emotionally charged alternatives could have been used, such as "significant disruption to global trade" and "increased risk of economic downturn.
Bias by Omission
The article focuses heavily on the opinions of the panelists, particularly Setser and Allen, providing detailed quotes and analysis of their perspectives. However, it lacks perspectives from other economists or experts who may hold differing views on the impact of US tariffs. The omission of dissenting opinions could limit the reader's ability to form a fully informed conclusion on the topic. Additionally, while the article mentions the impact on inflation in 2023, it doesn't provide specific data or sources to support this claim. This omission reduces the overall credibility of this aspect of the analysis.
False Dichotomy
The article presents a somewhat simplified view of the situation, focusing primarily on the potential negative consequences of tariffs without fully exploring potential benefits or alternative solutions. While the potential for a global economic downturn is highlighted, the article doesn't delve deeply into the possibility of negotiating more favorable trade agreements or other strategies to achieve the Trump administration's stated goals.
Gender Bias
The article features three main panelists, one of whom (Susan Yuqing Feng) is a woman and acts as moderator. While her role is important, the analysis of the tariff policy primarily comes from the male panelists. There's no apparent gender bias in the language used to describe the panelists, however, the dominance of male voices in shaping the narrative of the piece may subtly reinforce a gender imbalance in economic discourse.
Sustainable Development Goals
The article discusses the negative impacts of US tariffs on economic growth and employment. Increased tariffs lead to reduced trade, impacting both import and export sectors, potentially resulting in job losses and slower economic growth. The imposition of tariffs is also noted to contribute to inflation, further harming economic stability and impacting consumers.